Transformation in agricultural land management is critical to achieving Scottish Government’s aims of mitigating climate change, addressing the biodiversity crisis and achieving a just transition for land and agriculture.

Providing advice and collaborative learning opportunities through the Farm Advisory Service (FAS) is the key mechanism to deliver behaviour change in the agricultural sector. The Scottish Government is seeking to better integrate the FAS into an agricultural knowledge and innovation system (AKIS) for Scotland. AKIS is a system of innovation that links organisations, institutions, incentives and funding.

This research comprised an evidence review and options appraisal for an agricultural knowledge and innovation system for Scotland. The report presents 35 options that the research considered in detail. The options presented are across six themes:

  • Creating a unified AKIS
  • Regionalisation and specialisation
  • Support peer-to-peer learning and farmer collaboration
  • Promote diversity and generational renewal in the agricultural sector
  • Digital opportunities and upskilling
  • AKIS capacity building

Conclusion

Creating a responsive, inclusive AKIS for Scotland requires carving new pathways between actors and rethinking service provision. The Farm Advisory Service has had very positive reviews to date. Pursuing many of the options identified in this report would represent a major re-organisation and re-allocation of resources. Detailed planning and consultation would be required to ensure that new approaches add value. Expansion of supports to cohorts in addition to farmers and crofters (eg foresters, community land owners, new landowners primarily focused on carbon offsetting or rewilding) will require reorientation of resources or increased investment. A collaborative approach across policy areas would be required to achieve an effective, system-wide transformation.

For further details, please download the report.

If you require the report in an alternative format, such as a Word document, please contact info@climatexchange.org.uk or 0131 651 4783.

Farmers are already experiencing changing weather patterns and extreme events due to climate change and consideration of adaptation actions is very timely.

This report maps the major agricultural activities in Scotland and examines Scotland’s rainfall and temperature projections up to 2030, 2050 and 2100 using UK Climate Projection 18 data, to create a picture of current agricultural activity and future climate.

The study located regions that have a similar climate to what Scotland expects in the future, to identify agricultural products that could be adopted or expanded in Scotland. It also explored published evidence to examine the options for climate change adaptation for farmers in Scotland.

The evidence review identified around 50 adaptation actions suitable for Scottish agriculture that would be feasible in all regions of Scotland before 2030 and are also applicable to 2050 and 2100.

Key findings
  • Scotland is predicted to have wetter and warmer winters and drier and warmer summers, alongside a higher frequency of extreme events.
  • The climatically regions in the world comparable to Scotland are limited to northern Europe, parts of western Canada, southern Alaska, southern Chile and Auckland Island.
  • Relevant cropping activity could be e.g. sugar beet, apples, oats and hops.
  • Livestock are more adaptable than cropping, so it will be more important to adapt management and improve both natural/green and hard infrastructure, such as shade, shelterbelts and buildings, than completely change breeds and/or species.
  • Proposed adaptation actions include adjusting planting and harvesting dates, selecting crop types resilient to extreme weather, and adjusting pasture and soil management practices.
  • Adaptive actions include knowledge transfer and management changes, such as advice provision, early weather warning systems and farmer co-operatives. There are also cross-over actions that support mitigation and adaptation in agriculture and can support biodiversity, such as changes to fertiliser application frequency to improve both inorganic and organic fertiliser use efficiency, improved soil management to better respond to wetter and drier conditions and use of agroforestry.

The report recommends that it is important to act now to increase Scotland’s adaptive capacity, particularly as in the past year Scotland has experienced extreme storms, extreme heat and extended dry periods.

Further details on the findings and a full list of recommendations is available in the report.

Scotland is a peat-rich nation. Healthy peatlands deliver a wide range of ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration, carbon storage and a specialised biodiversity.

However, much of Scotland’s peat resource is damaged: eroding, drained or converted to other land uses. The Scottish Government has made a significant commitment to restore peatland areas that have been damaged.

Peatlands restored to a functioning ecosystem can better withstand a changing climate and also provide vital flood risk protection. It takes time for the benefits of restoration to take effect.

This paper explores how we can monitor success. Long-term monitoring is important to track this recovery and prompt intervention when necessary.

Despite significant investment in peatland restoration we still have a lot to learn, particularly on the best techniques to use, and in understanding how long the process takes.

Agriculture is a large industry in Scotland, representing approximately 19% of the nation’s emissions, according to data from 2020.

The Scottish Government’s Climate Change Plan update requires a 31% reduction in agricultural emissions by 2032, from 2018 levels, a pace nearly four times faster than has been achieved up to now.

Agricultural machinery is estimated to contribute around 5-10% of Scottish agriculture’s greenhouse gas emissions and its energy use has increased 14% since 2008. Therefore, decarbonisation of machinery could play a key role in Scotland’s transition to net zero by 2045.

However, there is a lack of reliable information on emissions from mobile agricultural machinery and the options, costs and pathways to decarbonisation. This evidence review aims to address this evidence gap to inform policy development for the fourth Climate Change Plan, due in 2024.

This study has assessed the suitability of biodiesel, biomethane, battery electric vehicles (BEV) and hydrogen to power mobile machinery.

Key findings
  • Biomethane offers the highest short-term emission reduction potential, of 77%. This is due to the availability of this technology and its suitability to current farming practices, offering a like-for-like replacement for current diesel machinery.
  • Battery electric vehicles (BEV) and green hydrogen offer the highest emission reduction potential by 2035 (98.8% and 94.8% reductions, respectively), assuming both technologies will have matured significantly by then.
  • Biomethane and biodiesel may be the favourable alternative fuel option in the short term. In the long term, battery electric and hydrogen will be the preferred technologies as they mature. Emerging technologies need to be evaluated as they proliferate the market to avoid locking in potentially undesirable technologies in the short term.
  • Short-term uptake of biomethane and biodiesel on dairy farms where there is the potential to generate fuel with waste materials could be prioritised. For those farms where generation of biomethane is not feasible or access to a collective source of biomethane is not possible, there could be a long-term focus on preparing infrastructure for battery electric vehicles or hydrogen.
  • It is likely that a mix of alternative fuels will be needed.

For further details on the study and findings, please read the report attached.

Agriculture contributes to 18% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Scotland and is required to reduce its emissions by 31% from 2019 levels by 2032, according to the Scottish Government’s update to the Climate Change Plan.

Reductions to reach Scotland’s net zero GHG emissions targets can be achieved through mitigation and carbon sequestration measures implemented on farms. Taken together with options identified in the wider food chain and land use, such as dietary change, land use change and food waste reduction, there is clear potential to move food production closer to net zero.

This report provides an updated assessment of the emission reduction potential of the most effective mitigation measures in Scotland.

Researchers assessed 25 farm technologies, or 39 when considered for different livestock types, and practices that can reduce GHG emissions in Scotland by 2050 – modelling constraints required using 2050 instead of the net zero target of 2045, which is not excepted to impact mitigation as all the mitigation measures are fully implemented in the model by the early 2040s.

The measures were derived via a systematic process taking forward the most suitable options for Scotland for quantitative modelling, drawing from relevant UK and Scotland reports. Details of the agricultural activity scenarios used can be found in appendix B of the report.

Key findings

  • Assuming mitigation measures are taken by 45% of farmers, the total mitigation potential in 2050 is between 0.9 and 4.3 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e). The mitigation attributable to changing practices and technologies on farms is between 0.4 and 0.9 Mt CO2e in 2050, while the remaining mitigation is due to reduced agricultural activity.
  • The Tailwinds and Widespread Engagement activity scenario offer the highest total GHG reduction, most of it arising from reduced agricultural activity.
  • The Business as Usual activity scenario, which includes no behavioural and technological changes, has the highest abatement potential on farms, consistent with this scenario having the largest dairy herd, grassland area and arable production, but offers the lowest overall GHG mitigation. However, reducing the land areas and livestock numbers, by increasing yield and reducing demand for livestock products, generates higher total abatement, considering uptake of the measures by 45% of farmers.

Five mitigation measures stand out as providing high emission reduction potential at negative or low abatement cost in most scenarios:  

  • Growing clover-grass mix instead of pure grass is the most cost-effective mitigation option and also one of the measures that offer the largest abatement.
  • Using genomics in dairy breeding could provide net savings to the farmers and offers high emissions reduction potential in most scenarios.
  • Increasing the beef output from dairy herds using sexed semen could offer considerable mitigation at zero net cost.
  • Finishing beef animals faster is also cost effective and offers high mitigation.
  • Using nitrate as a feed additive for beef costs less than the carbon price.

For further details about the findings and the overall study can be found in the report attached.

Creating woodlands and targets for planting trees are important parts of the Climate Change Plan update to contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets.

Agroforestry combines trees and agriculture on the same plot of land, with tree density varying dependent on agricultural land type, tree species and objective. There has been growing interest in agroforestry systems as an opportunity to integrate land management objectives and contribute to meeting tree planting targets and generate GHG reductions and removals. However, currently a very small proportion (3.3%) of the area used for agriculture in the UK is managed as agroforestry. Carbon schemes, such as the Woodland Carbon Code (WCC) could offer a potential route to provide financial support and incentivise agroforestry.

This reports assesses the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through different forms of agroforestry. 

It finds that all forms of agroforestry have the potential to sequester carbon, although the benefits will vary depending on soil type, species, planting density and location.

The research suggests that the fastest rate of carbon sequestration is most likely to be achieved on highly productive lowland areas. Whilst benefits can also accrue on less productive uplands, avoiding disturbance of organic soil layers is a key consideration.

Grasslands cover a large area of Scotland’s land and their management can influence whether grassland soils release or store carbon and by how much.

This project synthesises the best state of knowledge on the effect of management practices on soil carbon sequestration in permanent, managed Scottish grasslands and modelled potential application.

Main findings
  • We found some good evidence for the effects of specific practices on carbon sequestration in managed grassland.
  • However, we found little evidence on the interaction between factors and the efficacy of these measures under diverse environmental conditions.
  • Our modelling simulations suggest increases of 1-2.5 tonnes of additional carbon stored per hectare where carbon inputs to soil can be increased by 10% for a 30-year period. If achievable, benefits would likely plateau as saturation in soil is reached. They also highlight the risk of negative effects of additional grazing.
  • Factors affecting sequestration potential include grazing rates, grass species, application of fertiliser and tillage.
  • Evidence supports the addition of non-synthetic substances (e.g., plant residue and manure) to soil and the selection of high yielding grass species mixes for increasing carbon sequestration where this is possible to apply. Some evidence exists for the use of synthetic fertiliser to increase soil carbon sequestration although the environmental costs of fertiliser production/ application make this less appealing.
  • The application of biochar as a method for increasing soil carbon sequestration would require more research, especially on biomass for production and on its impact on yield and the environment. Evidence for the application of lime for increased productivity is inconclusive.
  • The evidence for the effects of managing grassland for carbon sequestration in soil is mixed. We did find more conclusive evidence on the effects of altering inputs than on the effects of influencing carbon sequestration through the turnover (degradation) of existing soil carbon.
  • Replacing synthetic fertiliser with carbon-containing fertiliser will lead to stronger increases in carbon sequestration when applied in the correct circumstances. However, this will not apply across the whole of Scotland due to limitations to supply. Sources of additional organic material hold the largest potential for increases as most manure produced on-site is currently also applied on-site.

The Carbon Neutral Island project will support six Scottish islands to become carbon neutral by 2040. It will support islands to run on 100% renewable energy, create circular economies, and explore more sustainable transport options.

This research explores the available data for climate change action on Scottish islands, especially in relation to climate accounting exercises and good practices in dealing with the climate change emergency.

Main findings
  • Currently, there is not a consistent approach across Scottish Islands to GHG accounting, and no complete GHG inventories exist at the individual island level.
  • Most GHG emissions estimates focus on energy (including buildings and transport) and miss out key sectors such as land use, forestry and agriculture.
  • The unique challenges associated with islands, while requiring a tailored mitigation approach, also show their suitability as test beds for the development, trial and deployment of emerging technologies appropriate for decarbonisation strategies.
  • Both in Scotland and across Northern Europe there are significant commonalities between the barriers being addressed and sector priorities in projects delivered. The potential for knowledge sharing and adapting successful projects to local purposes provides a resource with significant potential. However, it must incorporate a place-based approach and be suited to local characteristics.
  • Financial support within the Scottish Island context needs to connect community-level issues in peripheral islands with the planning agendas of local authorities and central government. Scottish islands’ atypical characteristics are often not fully appreciated and considered.
  • It is clear that a one size fits all approach for climate finance is not appropriate in the Scottish Island context due to their unique characteristics such as main emission sources and population size.
  • Small islands can house cohesive communities, which support effective working towards shared climate goals. Thus, community funding can be used as a building block for implementing mitigation measures and increasing community-level adaptive capacity.

A key output of the project was a set of databases, available alongside this report, that capture information on the three topics outlined above. This resource can be used by the Scottish Government in implementing the Carbon Neutral Island project, but also by island local authorities and communities as they chart a course, and take actions towards net zero.

Vegetated coastlines, including seagrass, mangroves, and salt marshes, are valued for their capacity to sequester and store large amounts of organic carbon in their soils.

However, coastal habitats are degrading globally, raising fears that blue carbon habitats could largely disappear by the end of this century unless significant protection and restoration efforts are enacted.

The widespread conversion of Scotland’s saltmarshes to agricultural and development land, especially during the 18th and 19th centuries, together with more recent acceleration of sea-level rise, places this important coastal habitat under extreme pressures.

Key findings
  • There is significant potential for managed realignment in Scotland.
  • However, the rates at which additional carbon stores are accumulating are not clear at these sites nor is their potential to contribute GHG emissions back to the atmosphere.
  • We found evidence supporting a perceived growing threat of rising sea-levels, particularly associated with the potential loss of saltmarsh area, and associated soil carbon.
  • Managed realignment and the creation of new saltmarsh offers a net gain at most sites over the existing saltmarsh area.
  • The lower saltmarsh edge only extends down to the mean high water neap level in a few cases. This means local monitoring of vegetation in relation to tidal variation prior to restoration is needed to model future marsh extent.
  • To fully assess marsh vulnerability to relative sea-level rise, evidence suggests inclusion of high-tide levels.

It is still not possible to estimate the time taken for a managed realignment site to reach a stable state with natural rates of carbon sequestration. The approach taken in this study to estimate potential blue carbon gains assumes that the realigned saltmarsh will reach a state where it buries and stores organic carbon in a similar way to a natural saltmarsh but does not include this time-dependent process.

Detailed monitoring of existing restored sites across Scotland would improve our understanding of the additional blue carbon gains in soil profiles at these sites, and to also understand the extent of any losses, including GHG emissions, over periods of time.

Blog

Read a blog about a conference poster developed as part of this project