Building-level energy storage allows consumers to capture cheap electricity or heat when it is available and store it for later use.

This report examines the extent to which such technologies could help to reduce household energy costs when installed alongside zero-carbon heat technologies.

We also present results from a simulation exercise to determine the cost effectiveness of electric batteries, heat batteries and thermal storage installed alongside heat pumps.

The key findings show that currently there is little commercial benefit to the householder installing storage without localised electricity generation. However, the potential role of domestic storage in smoothing peak demand periods on the grid indicates that building-level storage will be required to support the decarbonisation of heat through electrification.

Recommendations

• Once published, the monitoring results from ongoing projects with building-level storage should be reviewed for evidence of financial savings for consumers. This includes the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) electrification of heat pilot, OVO Energy’s trial with Powervault and various project that are funded by the Scottish Government.  
• Ensure the Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) in their transition to District Systems Operators (DSO) actively provide support for local and national flexibility markets by engaging with aggregators when planning for the increased future demand on the grid.
• Where feasible, installers and property owners should be encouraged to pair thermal storage with heat pumps. Although there is limited evidence of the direct financial savings that this can provide for consumers, the benefits of improved system efficiencies, heat pump longevity and the ability to ease pressure on the grid during peak periods will provide indirect financial benefits.
• Grant funding or some form of financial incentive may be necessary to encourage the installation of thermal storage with heat pumps.
• Further research is conducted to understand what the identified savings from existing and ongoing research might mean for rates of fuel poverty.

Green hydrogen, produced by electrolysis exclusively with renewable electricity, is expected to play a key role in the Scottish Government’s mission to achieve net zero emissions targets.

Hydrogen is a versatile energy vector that can be used in a range of applications without emitting carbon dioxide at the point of use.

Scotland has set an initial ambition of producing at least 5 gigawatts of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen by 2030 and 25 gigawatts by 2045.

Meeting these targets will not only contribute to emissions reductions but also has the potential to safeguard future industry and employment. Scotland’s geography, geology, infrastructure, and expertise make it particularly suited to rapidly developing a low-carbon hydrogen economy. This could see Scotland become a global leader in hydrogen, and secure economic opportunities across the UK.

This report explores the costs of producing green hydrogen in Scotland. It considers the key drivers of cost and explores how the production cost and the supply chain could develop to 2045.

The study investigated each part of the supply chain, to understand the current costs and barriers, as well as to identify where policy support could help the green hydrogen economy to grow.

It has defined four hydrogen production pathways which reflect the main supply chain models that are expected to emerge in a green hydrogen economy: centralised system, distributed pahtway, export model and decentralised model.

Main findings and recommendations

• The cost of hydrogen is expected to at least halve between 2022 and 2045 for the three pathways connected directly to wind farms.
• Electricity costs are the biggest driver of hydrogen cost reductions from 2030 onwards.
• Scaling up the industry is expected to lead economies of scale and drive manufacturing cost savings across the supply chain.
• Domestic infrastructure to transport hydrogen is currently limited and needs to be rapidly developed to ensure the continued emergence of the green hydrogen sector in Scotland.
• Price competitiveness with natural gas in industrial-scale applications is unlikely before 2045 without government support.
• Subsidy support will be required to encourage adoption of green hydrogen in the short term.
• Scotland has potential to become an exporter of hydrogen to Europe.

Scotland’s Heat in Buildings Strategy sets out a pathway to zero emissions buildings by 2045 and details actions that will accelerate the transformation of the nation’s building stock. The Strategy commits to the conversion of the equivalent of 50,000 non-domestic buildings to zero emissions heat by 2030.

There are approximately 220,000 non-domestic buildings in Scotland and they are hugely diverse. An understanding of the merits and limitations of existing building stock data is integral to developing policy that supports the Heat in Buildings Strategy commitment.

Main findings

• Energy efficiency upgrade information is not currently well-reported in the non-domestic sector. Energy Action Plans could be used as a basis for an annual reporting mechanism to make this more transparent.
• Display Energy Certificates are informative and standardised forms of energy and building data. Scottish Government could consider adopting these for all non-domestic buildings in order to monitor progress towards 2030 targets.
• The Non-Domestic Analytics dataset could be updated more frequently to mitigate for the low number of non-domestic buildings with Energy Performance Certificates.
• Bulk Energy Performance Certificate data could include information on the buildings’ age band, constructions, and built form to add value to, for example, developing Scottish thermal stock models.
• Improved quality controls on Energy Performance Certificate input data could improve the cross-referencing with other datasets.
• Linking Energy Performance Certificate and other databases with interactive maps, such as those provided by local authorities, could aid policy observation and target monitoring.
• The Scottish Government could consider undertaking a regular non-domestic building stock survey, analogous to the Scottish House Condition Survey and informed by other activities in the rest of UK and, in particular, the US.
• The successful use of other surveying techniques and data collection, such as self-reporting and use of tax record information, could form the basis of a wider surveying approach to non-domestic buildings.
• The report has suggested a framework for tracking and mapping datasets and policy areas. This could be maintained to understand the value and impact of current and future data strategies.
• Key parameters from Building Warrant applications could be registered and shared in a nationwide database to assist with the development of policy.

To deliver Scotland’s target of net zero emissions by 2045, the Scottish Government has set out a series of sector specific policies and measures, collated and summarised in the 2020 Update to the Climate Change Plan (CCPu).

This project has developed a set of Scotland-specific whole energy system scenarios, nested in and consistent with the wider UK transition. These scenarios demonstrate three qualitatively different routes for Scotland to meet its greenhouse gas (GHG) targets, allowing different choices and potential implications to be explored. 

The three scenarios met Scotland’s annual, interim (2030) and net zero (2045) GHG targets over the modelled period 2020-2050, through different combinations of technology innovation and societal change:

1. The Technology (TEC) scenario is able to remove significant amounts of CO₂ by direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) used to produce hydrogen and electricity. This reduced the level of societal change necessary to meet targets thus minimising the impact on people’s lifestyles.
2. The lower energy demands assumed in the Societal Change (SOC) scenario meant targets were achievable with far lower amounts of biomass and engineered removals of CO₂. In addition, shifts in diet from red meat and dairy, combined with ambitious programmes of peatland restoration and afforestation, meant land use became a net GHG sink.
3. Balanced Options (BOP) combined some technology innovation with some degree of societal change to meet GHG targets in a more balanced way than TEC or SOC.

To meet Scotland’s 2030 GHG target, rapid decarbonisation of the energy system is needed in all modelled scenarios.

The Scottish Government is committed to ensuring that, from 2024, new buildings applying for a building warrant must use heating systems which produce zero direct GHG emissions at the point of use.

This analysis of direct, point-of-use greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with zero carbon heating technologies considered a range of technologies, including:

• Zero direct emission technologies, including direct electric heaters, electric storage heaters, electric boilers, solar thermal and solar thermal storage, heat pumps and heat networks.
• Biomass combustion.
• Hydrogen combustion and fuel cells.

Key findings 

• Direct emissions from direct electric heaters, electric storage heaters, electric boilers, solar thermal technologies, heat pumps, heat networks and fuel cells are found to be negligible.
• Biomass combustion and hydrogen combustion offer significant emissions savings compared to fossil fuel-based heating, but with varying levels of direct GHG emissions that are important to be aware of.
• A common theme across different technologies is a lack of data and research on direct emissions from both manufacturers and independent researchers; therefore, further research is needed to fill gaps and improve understanding.
• For biomass combustion for heating, there may be an important role for education and awareness raising. Information could be provided to operators/users around types of fuel and fuel quality and how these impact emissions.
• As well as supporting improved air quality, controls on fuel quality are likely to result in reduced GHG emissions.

Erratum: Please note that one sentence in the executive summary of this report, related to the middle scenario, has been updated in June 2023 to reflect the data and conclusions.

To meet the Scottish Government’s ambitious climate change targets, there will need to be a significant increase in the deployment of energy efficiency and low carbon heat measures in domestic and non-domestic buildings in the next decade. To deliver this, the supply chain in Scotland needs to be fit-for-purpose in terms of having the capacity and skills to deliver this scale of technology deployment.

This report reviews the current capabilities and skills along the supply chain of the energy efficiency and low carbon heating technologies in Scotland, identifies the skills gaps and analyses the potential options to fill these gaps to meet the targets set out in the Heat in Buildings Strategy.

Future workforce requirements

• To meet the Scottish Government’s statutory climate change targets, we estimate that the peak full-time equivalent workforce required for energy efficiency and low carbon technologies by 2030 would be between 4,500 to 5,400 installers of thermal insulation, assuming a linear growth in the number of installations.
• The study explored three scenarios of heat network uptake, alongside heat pumps and direct electric installations. The middle scenario requires 4,600-11,400 heat pump installers, 320-4,000 heat network installers and 530-1,100 direct electric installers.

Other key findings

• The view of the respondents was that there are current shortages in the energy efficiency and low carbon heat workforce, which adds to the challenge of attracting the required future workforce numbers.
• Respondents considered the landscape of different funding sources to support upskilling / re-skilling in the energy efficiency area very complex to apply for. Smaller businesses reported finding it a considerable challenge to find the most appropriate funding for their needs and to pursue with the application process. 
• Employers will need to have the confidence to invest in their future workforce as they will need to play an important part by bringing in new workforce to this field. For certain roles the route in is to take on apprentices and offer them employment after completing their apprenticeships.
• There is also a need to attract and upskill new entrants for roles which do not have an apprenticeship route. Ways to bring in more new entrants will need to be looked at and companies need to be prepared to invest in training up these new entrants.

Scotland’s Fisheries Management Strategy 2020-2030 commits to taking action to understand and mitigate the impacts of climate change on Scotland’s seas, one key aspect being to establish a “baseline [emission] per fleet segment”. The information available prior to this project does not provide sufficiently up-to-date data to define this baseline. 

This study assesses greenhouse gas emissions by vessel type. The emissions of interest are constrained to those associated with energy use on the vessel. Emissions associated with onshore activities, from transport and refrigeration, are considered out of the scope.

Key findings

• In general, the longer a vessel is, the more fossil fuel is used to power the vessel and the more it emits per day of activity. The vessel types with highest emissions in the Scottish fishing fleet are composed of the largest trawlers: whitefish trawlers over 24 metres, pelagic trawlers and large Nephrops trawlers (over 300 kW).
• The vessels emitting lower GHG per kilogramme of fish landed are large vessels using efficient fishing techniques: demersal seine, pair trawl, pair seine, and pelagic trawl.
• The vessels emitting lower GHG per £ pound sterling landed are almost all in passive gear segment under 12 metres long, with the exception of large pelagic trawlers.

Biomass has an important role in achieving Scotland’s net-zero targets, particularly through negative emissions when deployed as Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). These negative emissions can offset residual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from hard-to-decarbonise sectors such as aviation and construction.

This report updates previous estimates of Scotland’s domestic biomass supply; analysis of the demand for biomass within published decarbonisation pathways; and assesses the scale of BECCS required to achieve negative emissions in the pathway set out in the CCPu.

Key findings

Our estimate of the total current (c. 2020) bioresources produced in Scotland and used for bioenergy annually is 8.9 TWh. Of this, around 8 TWh/year are ‘dry bioresources’ (e.g. wood) suitable for combustion to generate power and/or heat, and 0.9 TWh/year are ‘wetter’ resources (e.g. wastes) more suited for anaerobic digestion to produce biogas, biomethane or more complex biofuels. An additional 3.6 TWh/year is currently available for bioenergy but is not used.

The Scottish TIMES model total annual demand for bioenergy increases from 8.4 TWh in 2020 to 27 TWh in 2030, and 26 TWh in 2045. The simulated bioenergy demand in Scotland in the Climate Change Committee’s 6th Carbon Budget ranges from 7.6 TWh in 2020 to 10.3 – 23.5 TWh in 2045.

Our analysis shows that bioenergy demand in 2030 and 2045 in the Scottish TIMES pathway is higher than our estimates for available domestic bioenergy resources.

Our analysis concludes that in order for Scotland to achieve both the 2030 and 2032 BECCS component of emission removal envelopes via BECCS power, the equivalent of two 500 MWe power plants will be needed.

This report reviews the scholarly literature and case study data regarding the role of public sector agencies in accelerating technological innovation. The aim is to inform heat decarbonisation policy discussions in Scotland, and the developing plans for a Scottish ‘low-carbon heat hub’.

The report is split into three main sections: design principles for innovation agencies; types of innovation agencies; and specific activities of innovation agencies.

Themes and conclusions

Persistent issues relevant to the Scottish policy discussion surrounding innovation agencies and energy sector transition heat decarbonisation are:

• The limits of general classification: the importance of tailoring an innovation agency to meet the particular policy goals, and the strengths and weaknesses of a given region.
• The need for a system-wide approach: while the design and function of a specific agency is important, it is vital to consider their complementary role within a wider innovation system
• The tension between autonomy and embeddedness: the need to consider the effect that close linkages between innovation agencies and public and private sectors can have on institutional autonomy, and the impact this can have on the balance between urgent policy implementation goals and more emergent and perhaps radical long-term innovations.

As set out in Scotland’s energy strategy, the Scottish Government has set targets for the equivalent of 50% of the energy for electricity, heat and transport consumption in Scotland to come from renewable energy by 2030 (estimated at 25.4% in 2020).

Access to high quality reliable data is essential in providing the evidence base to inform the development and implementation of effective energy policies and track progress. This project develops new and improved methodologies for collecting and assessing energy data in Scotland on some categories of electricity and heat demand.

For electricity, this involves: electricity use in properties; electricity use for heat pumps; and low-carbon energy use in transport.

For heat, this involves: weather correcting heat demand; heat demand across different fuels and sectors in Scotland; and emissions factors for different heating fuels and sectors.