In 2019, domestic transport (excluding international aviation and shipping) was the largest source of net greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland, with 25.1% of Scotland’s greenhouse gas emissions. Scottish Ministers aim to phase out sales of new petrol and diesel cars and light vans from 2030.

This research considers the difference in cost between installing electric vehicle (EV) charge points during initial construction or major renovation of a building as opposed to retrofitting at a later date.

The findings provide further evidence to Transport Scotland as they plan to propose legislative measures for a national requirement on the installation of EV charge points for new buildings.

Main findings
  • There is very limited data available on the differences in costs of the installation of EV charge points in new buildings or those undergoing major renovation, as opposed to those being retrofitted.
  • The consultation revealed that new developments do offer cost difference by offering some efficiencies in installing EV charge points when compared to buildings being retrofitted.
  • Installing EV chargers in new developments, as opposed to in those being renovated or retrofitted, is also more cost efficient in terms of the District Network Operator (DNO) upgrades. They are generally not required in respect to EV charge points as it is likely that increased capacity requirements have been considered as part of the new development.
  • Geography is clearly a key factor influencing installation costs for EV charge points, with this largely being influenced by supply-chain issues such as availability of quality suppliers and technicians, labour and travel costs. This result in the costs being generally higher in the remote and island areas for all building types including new, undergoing major renovation, and retrofitted.

 

Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) are an important set of technologies to achieve Scotland’s net-zero targets. 

CO2 utilisation is thought to be a complementary technology to CO2 sequestration. Whilst geological sequestration can permanently store CO2, CO2 utilisation can be used to produce conventional products such as carbon containing fuels, chemicals, and polymers without reliance on additional extraction of fossil carbon. It is therefore of interest for sustainable manufacturing and the circular use of resources, particularly if biogenic or atmospheric CO2 is utilised.

A large number of technology pathways are available for development in Scotland. This report explores these pathways based on development stage, feasibility and economic opportunity.

Main findings

  • Gas fermentation and microalgae growth techniques could build on Scottish expertise and have local product markets in aquaculture.
  • Synthetic fuels could benefit from Scottish renewable electricity and have large European market potential.
  • Carbon nanomaterials are an emerging opportunity linked to high-value lightweight materials and manufacturing of electrical devices.

Factors to consider for Scotland to unlock the full potential of CO2-utilisation:

  • Funding will be required to increase the Technology Readiness Level.
  • CO2 utilisation may benefit dispersed sites or small-scale emitters where capture, transport & sequestration is challenging.
  • CO2 utilisation can offer economic opportunities for emitters of biogenic CO2 able to easily capture their emissions (e.g. distilleries).
  • The relevant scale and investment requirements vary with technology and application.
  • Whilst some products can be cost-competitive and feed directly into local supply chains, other products require new policy incentives or development of new applications.
  • Close integration of value chains and synergies with existing industries should be considered when locating utilisation projects.

To help reduce emissions in the transport sector, and meet the net-zero target, in 2020 the Scottish Government committed to a 20% reduction in car kilometres (km) by 2030.

This project set out to increase understanding of public perceptions, user needs, and approaches to support uptake of future low-carbon mobility systems in Scotland. The report examines public perceptions towards the 20% reduction commitment. It details findings from six two-hour focus groups conducted virtually in July and August 2021.

The original was refocused to include lessons from the Covid-19 pandemic, and links to the UK-wide research project, Covid-19 Transport, Travel and Social Adaption Study (TTAS), which is examining longitudinal and regional impacts of the pandemic on transport and travel in Scotland and England, and how people have adapted.

 

Key findings

Car clubs & car sharing

  • Most focus group participants not aware of car clubs or car sharing schemes; felt they needed more information.
  • Participants viewed lift and ride sharing more negatively than car clubs; the two different schemes can be easily confused.
  • Desire for club cars to be in easy-to-access and safe-to-access locations.
  • Those participants who were young people and inexperienced drivers raised questions about car club pricing structures.
  • Some participants interested in using car clubs as alternative to longer car journeys when linked with other transport modes, for example, trains and accessing car clubs at stations.
  • Some households with 1+ cars see car clubs as a viable alternative to the 1+ car, but car clubs do not currently appeal as an alternative to household car ownership.

Reducing car kilometres – public perceptions as to what needs to be in place

Focus group participants would like to see:

  • improvements to public transport, making it ‘more accessible, more affordable with a reliable and frequent service’ (quote from focus group)
  • a central place for information on travel options and alternatives to car travel
  • more services come to the home g. grocery, takeaways, non-food deliveries
  • a continuation of working from home and flexible working options
  • car pooling and car sharing for work
  • improvements in cycle infrastructure especially in rural areas
  • electric vehicle (EV) options for mobility vehicles and accessible EV charging infrastructure

There are some journeys which participants are less willing to adapt, such as grocery shopping, leisure journeys which involves transporting equipment, and journeys with 1+ children. There is also some hesitation about changing journeys over winter.

 

 

Commercial vehicle emissions present a significant challenge to Scotland achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2045. From 2012 to 2019, van and heavy duty vehicles (HDVs) emissions increased 25% and 4%, respectively.

The growth in van and heavy goods vehicle (HGV) numbers will worsen emissions, congestion and air pollution if left unchecked. In addition, an increase in commercial vehicle traffic in urban areas poses a safety challenge for other road users, especially those walking or wheeling.

The number of last mile deliveries has been increasing for some time because of the growth in online shopping. To help Transport Scotland (TS) improve its understanding of ‘last mile’ this project aimed to:

  1. Develop a profile of last mile delivery in Scotland
  2. Develop a high-level estimate of GHG emissions from last mile deliveries in Scotland.
  3. Understand what activities are underway in other jurisdictions to reduce emissions from this source.
  4. Collate details of commitments made by businesses operating in Scotland to reduce last mile emissions.
Findings
  • Last mile vehicles comprise 2.7% of all vehicles (cars, LCVs and HGVs) in Scotland.
  • Last mile mileage is 4.7% of total miles covered by cars, LCVs, and HGVs in Scotland.
  • Last mile goods moved equates to 9.2% of all goods moved.
  • Last mile emissions comprise an estimated 6.6% of all road transport emissions in Scotland.
  • Based on a review of initiatives in other jurisdictions no examples of specific policies were identified that specifically target last mile deliveries.  The examples typically involve a fleet working with a city municipality, and potentially other stakeholders, to develop a distinct project aimed at reducing emissions from last mile deliveries.
  • A number of large UK-wide businesses have made public commitments to tackle emissions from their home delivery vehicle fleets. These commitment include the roll out of electric vans, ending the use of fossil fuels vehicles across their fleets and use of cargo bikes for deliveries.

Outputs will be useful for TS to help it engage with the freight and logistics industry, identifying challenges and opportunities for decarbonisation. Findings will also help local authorities and fleet operators, by providing a sample of information on commitments made by businesses in Scotland to improve sustainability, and visibility of innovative schemes outside Scotland, which could potentially be replicated here.

This project aims to provide Transport Scotland with a snapshot of employers’ experience of their staff working from home / flexible working, business travel and commuting before the COVID-19 pandemic, during the lockdown in March-June 2020, and in the longer term as we recover from the pandemic. It seeks to develop an understanding of employers’ long-term travel plans and intentions; identify what barriers and enablers currently exist to delivering more home working and sustainable travel; and what measures would support employers in facilitating this shift. 

The research surveyed and interviewed representative Scottish businesses on different aspects of travel behaviour:

  • Workplace / journeys to work
  • Business travel
  • Impacts of home working on business and staff
  • Travel planning
  • Measures to support home working and use of sustainable modes of transport.
Findings

Workplace

  • Before the COVID-19 pandemic, most organisations (63%) had at least three quarters of their staff based fully at their workplace.
  • A significant shift to home working occurred during the first pandemic lockdown period (54% of businesses reported that more than three quarters of staff were working fully at home).
  • The survey confirmed that 71% either already support home working or plan to do so in the future.

Journeys to work

  • Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the most common mode of transport used by employees to travel to work was by private vehicle (three quarters of organisations’ employees) followed by active travel (57%) and public transport (55%).
  • During lockdown, for those employees who continued to travel to work, private vehicles and active travel predominated.
  • Distance was the most frequently cited barrier to the use of more sustainable modes for journeys to work (68%). 

Business travel

  • Before the pandemic, business travel was dominated by use of private vehicles (83%).
  • The lockdown forced a significant shift of activity online, with mixed impacts on business operations. While face-to-face contact is valued by many organisations (90% identified it as a significant barrier to reducing business travel), many suggest that in the future they will attend more meetings and events online than they did before the pandemic (80%).
  • The proportion of future business trips by private car is divided with 22% of businesses more likely to travel by private car, 53% about the same, and 31% less likely.

 Impacts of home working

  • Disadvantages cited include impacts on employees with a range of identifiable characteristics (e.g. people with caring responsibilities / living on their own / with mental health issues) together with issues around home-working conditions (55%), broadband/internet connections (51%), and staff recruitment and training (45%).
  • Mixed or negative impacts on health and wellbeing (social isolation/dislocation) were reported by 75% of employers.
  • Positive effects included reductions in organisations’ carbon footprints (89%) and time and financial savings for employees (89%).

 

The transport sector presents Scotland’s biggest challenge to decarbonisation, with emissions increasing each year since 2010. In 2016, transport (including aviation and shipping) contributed 37% of Scotland’s total greenhouse gas emissions. However, Scotland has shown strong ambition in this area. When this research was completed in March 2020, the Scottish Government had pledged to remove the need for new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2032, a target it subsequently said it would bring forward to 2030 in its Climate Change Plan update of December 2020.

To help Transport Scotland develop interventions, this report has: identified the economic impacts; developed a detailed framework to assess them; and used the outcomes to highlight the implications for policies to smooth the transition to ULEVs. 

We have concentrated on a scenario, prepared by Element Energy, which comes closest to meeting Scotland’s climate change targets. This scenario achieves the 2040 and 2045 targets, and almost meets the 2030 target.

Findings

In this scenario, the overall economic impacts are positive over the long term:

  • Gross Value Added (GVA) is higher in this scenario than in the baseline (in which ULEV deployment remains in proportion with that which occurred in 2018 in Scotland) across all years from 2027 to 2050.
  • In the short term, GVA is lower for two main reasons: higher investment costs and the high price of ULEVs (relative to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEs)) which reduces consumer spending in other areas.
  • Total economy-wide employment (on a full-time equivalent basis) is higher by 2043 reaching a net gain by of 2,700 jobs by 2050 but is below the baseline for most of the period.
  • ICE maintenance jobs are most at risk from the transition to ULEVs. The framework shows that more than 10,000 ICE maintenance jobs could be at risk by 2050 as ULEV powertrains have different maintenance requirements. The jobs at risk are likely to be distributed widely across Scotland, reflecting the geographic distribution of maintenance garages.
  • The oil and gas industry also faces significant job losses. We estimate around 4,000 of the 30,000 people directly employed in the oil and gas sector in Scotland are at risk of losing their jobs. This will have a particularly acute impact in Aberdeenshire where most of these jobs are located.
  • Up to a further 2,500 job losses could be lost at refuelling stations, partly because many ULEVs will often be charged from home.
  • There is potential for the creation of around 3,000 new jobs in the production of ULEVs, drawing on Scotland’s extensive expertise in electrical engineering. In particular, there appears to be an opportunity in developing low-emission heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs). Our analysis suggests a further 500 jobs could be created at companies installing and operating ULEV infrastructure.

 The scenario also suggests substantial environmental benefits:

  • CO2 emissions are reduced by 113m tonnes or 49% cumulatively over 2020-2050, from 232m tonnes to 119m. These can be monetised to show a total annual net benefit of £1.076bn (not discounted) in 2050.
  • Improvements to air quality from the annual reduction in tailpipe emissions of NOx and PM2.5s are estimated to reduce annual damages to human health by the equivalent of £335m in 2050 alone.

 

Transport is the highest emitting sector in Scotland, accounting for 37% of Scotland’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2017. Despite this, the sector is well placed to contribute to Scotland’s decarbonisation goals and the Scottish Government has pledged to phase out the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans  by 2032.

 

A number of  countries have already made significant progress in enabling ULEV uptake. Learnings from the practice and experiences of those other countries could be applied to support the transition to ULEVs in Scotland.

 

Research aims:

 

  • Countries and regions where policies and interventions have driven the uptake of ULEVs
  • The sectors within which ULEV uptake has been successful in these countries and regions, and comparing these with Scotland’s progress
  • The policies and programmes that were deployed to enable ULEV development in these countries and regions
  • Where Scotland could develop an international leading position, and developing recommendations on the potential for Scotland to adopt successful international policy and practice to accelerate ULEV uptake

 

Seven international case studies were developed to explore the level of ULEV adoption that has been achieved, and how this has been done.

Case study key findings:

 

  • Shenzen, China is the first city in the world to have a fully electric bus fleet which has been supported by an annual subsidy to major bus operators in the city, and an extensive charging network.
  • The Netherlands has the most comprehensive charging network in Europe which has been enabled by interoperability across operators in both the fast and rapid charging networks.
  • Japan has a strong ULEV manufacturing industry which has been stimulated by long term R&D investment.
  • Shanghai, China boasts a large-scale electric car share scheme supported by free parking and subsidies for infrastructure, and an EV consumer awareness campaign centred on an EV demonstration centre.
  • California, USA has a high uptake of ULEVs as a result of their Zero Emission Vehicle policy which forced manufacturers to produce low emission vehicles.
  • In Norway, BEVs made up 30% of new car sales in 2018. This has been enabled through a programme of incentives such as VAT exemptions and reduced tax rates.

 

A second phase in this research then matched examples of international leading practice in supporting the adoptions of ULEVs, against a range of ULEV market segments that had been identified through the ClimateXChange study: ULEV Market Segmentation in Scotland, published in December 2019.

Key findings on opportunities for Scotland:

 

  • International progress in some segments remains relatively underdeveloped and could pose an opportunity for Scotland to take a leading role. These segments relate to vehicles which are heavily utilised, but make up a small proportion of the total vehicle mix e.g. taxis, car share vehicles and public sector fleets.
  • The ULEV battery market is still maturing and there is potential here for significant innovation.
  • There is an opportunity to build on progress being made with the development of charging infrastructure, through the design and manufacture of fully integrated charging solutions. These would include on-site generation, battery storage solutions and innovative charging techniques.

Scotland’s new Climate Change Act commits Scotland to a target of achieving net-zero emissions by 2045. This is amongst the most stringent climate targets in the world. Emissions from Scotland’s transport sector (including aviation and shipping) contributed 37% of Scotland’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2017.

A rapid increase in the number of electric vehicles on our road is one part of Scotland’s plan to cut emissions from the sector. Scotland has consequently shown strong ambition in this area, with the Scottish Government pledging to phase out the need for new petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2032.

However, meeting this ambitious goal will require a rapid shift in purchasing behaviour amongst both private and company vehicle buyers. To achieve a full transition to ultra low emissions vehicles (ULEVs), it is critical to understand the specific challenges and needs that different car, van and HGV buyers face to develop targeted policies.

The aims of this study:
  • Identify the barriers that currently exist to ULEV uptake.
  • Segment Scottish car, van and HGV buyers by the specific barriers each one faces.
  • Make recommendations to overcome these barriers and maximise the economic opportunity for Scotland.

This report has made recommendations in order to address the identified barriers to ULEV uptake.

Some of these recommendations are:
  • Review ULEV purchase incentives in 2020 when Plug-in Car and Van grants are due to be revised. Purchase incentives should look to close the gap in upfront cost between ULEVs and conventional vehicles, but overall value to buyers should reflect the difference in overall ownership cost
  • Support development of services for fleets and consumers which can show suitability for ULEV adoption and potential cost savings e.g. telematics systems.
  • Signal to manufacturers that Scotland is primed for ULEV uptake e.g. building out public charging network, training garages in ULEV maintenance. 
  • Continue to develop rapid charging network, including extending coverage to minor roads, increasing charge rates and improving reliability. Mobile charging solutions (e.g. BP FreeWire) could be used to test viability of rapid charge points in new locations.
  • Launch a communication campaign to combat ULEV misconceptions and provide clear advice on options for ULEV purchase.

Research has shown that energy developments generally receive more support from the local community when they are expected to deliver local economic benefits. Energy developments also present the potential to support local economic development objectives. However, the local economic benefits resulting from an energy development can vary, depending on the ownership model and community benefits offered.

This report summarises the findings of a research project that examined the comparative local economic impacts of a local energy development under two alternative ownership models.

Using a proposed wind farm development for the Shetland Islands as an example, the research analysed the potential local economic and employment effects of an energy development under two scenarios: one where there is no local ownership but a community benefit scheme provides direct payments to the local community; and one with 50% local ownership.

This research found that local ownership confers the greatest economic benefits for the local community, far above the level that community benefit payments might be expected to provide.

A link to the full report, on which this brief is based, is available in the ‘useful links’ heading on this page.

Useful links

Low Emission Zones is considered one way to address the poor air quality in certain parts of Scotland. But introducing these zones could regulate the transport system in ways that adversely impacts certain groups. For example a Low Emission Zone could make it more difficult for already vulnerable groups to travel to the centre of a town or city.

Using Edinburgh as an example this report assesses the level of vulnerability across the South-East of Scotland Region. The spatial vulnerability assessment considers exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to the introduction of a Low Emission Zone. This assessment is built into a Geographical Information System as a site selection tool.

The findings from a spatial vulnerability assessment could be used to plan specific interventions or investments.