Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) theme: Natural environment

SCCAP objectives:
N1: Understand the effects of climate change and their impacts on natural environment

How is changing climate affecting crop suitability and productivity in Scotland’s agriculture?

Agricultural management and productivity are very closely related to the climate, with any climatic changes potentially resulting in both risks and opportunities for farming. A survey carried out by Farming Futures (in 2010) identified that 38% of all farmers surveyed said they were already affected by climate change and nearly 60% expected to be affected in the next ten years.

There is significant potential for Scotland’s agriculture sector to benefit from projected climate change. For example, warmer temperatures will result in:

• Longer growing season;
• Increased growth rate and consequently higher yields for some crops;
• An increase in the range and type of crops that can be grown;
• Reduced frost damage to winter crops.

However, climatic changes also bring significant risks. For example:

• Temperature and rainfall extremes resulting in loss of productivity;
• Increased irrigation demand in some areas due to an increase in water stress during the summer;
• Increases in the duration and intensity of rainfall events resulting in flooding and water-logging;
• Loss of top soil due to wind erosion in drier periods and runoff during prolonged or heavy rainfall events ;
• Facilitated introduction and/or increased range of invasive species;
• Mild winters increasing the range and prevalence of pests and diseases for crops and livestock. Two of the most economically damaging for Scotland’s agriculture are both significantly driven by climatic conditions.
  • Potato late blight epidemics are largely driven by the weather with periods of free moisture (high humidity, dew and rainfall) and moderate temperature being optimal for pathogen infection and spread.
  • Liver fluke spends much of its complicated life-cycle outside the host cattle or sheep, either within vector snails, or as cysts or eggs on pasture, its prevalence, seasonality and geographic spread are very much affected by temperature and rainfall.

Climate is also one of the key constraints with regard to land use. In areas where the limiting factor is related to soil moisture, climate change could result in a shift from land that is capable only of providing rough grazing to land that could be potentially improved, along with a significant expansion in prime agricultural land in eastern and southern Scotland. However, an increase of drought risk in some currently prime areas may necessitate changes in cropping systems, varieties and/or water management. These changes in the potential pattern of land use may therefore place Scotland’s agriculture into conflict with other sectors in ensuring sustainable and effective use of resources.

Adaptation options

In order to maximise productivity levels and strengthen Scottish agriculture, it is important that the sector has both the capacity to capitalise on potential opportunities as well as the resilience to limit negative impacts from the risks.

The Land Capability for Agriculture (LCA) system provides a good measure of the availability of high quality (‘prime’) land for agricultural production as well as the distribution of other classes of land critical for the Scottish livestock industry. It is based on the degree of limitation that climate, soil and topography impose on agricultural production and cropping flexibility. Whilst it does not determine actual use, there is a good relationship between the classification it provides and potential use. Therefore, used appropriately the LCA can provide a useful framework to examine how different sectors of Scottish agriculture might adapt to climate change as agricultural opportunities increase or decrease dependant on the direction of change in LCA classification. The role LCA already has in both spatial planning and land management practice means that, if projected changes in classification are taken into consideration, it could also be used to scope and implement climate change adaptation strategies. The principles and proposals for sustainable land use contained in Scotland’s Land Use Strategy have the potential to maximise opportunities and minimise risks at a larger scale than reactive autonomous adaptation most commonly seen at farm level.

The projected increase in drought risk in current areas of prime agricultural land in East Scotland is likely to restrict some land use options unless irrigation supply is increased. However, analysis using 2050’s climate projections has identified ‘hotspot’ catchments based on current land use and management regimes where water supply will be limited. Whilst the majority of irrigation in Scotland is targeted at potato and horticultural crops, if irrigation was extended to reduce drought risk to cereals, then water-stressed catchments would become much more common throughout North-East and South-East Scotland. Long-term, farmers may therefore need to consider other forms of adaptation such as shifting cropping systems and changes to more drought resistant varieties. Declining river flows may also require regulatory intervention in order to maintain environmental flow conditions. SEPA are currently trialling a new approach to abstraction management, working with land managers in catchments that have been identified at risk of impact from irrigation abstraction and focussing on crop requirements, water efficiency, irrigation programming and use of storage ponds. ‘Farming for a Better Climate’ (Scotland’s Rural College) and ‘Future Proofing Scotland’s Farming’ (Soil Association Scotland, Quality Meat Scotland) provides practical advice to farmers which helps to support this approach.

Whilst average soil wetness risk is projected to reduce in some areas (enhancing land use options on currently marginal land), increases in heavy or prolonged rainfall events will lead to soils becoming periodically saturated resulting in increased runoff (and diffuse pollution of water bodies), erosion of fertile topsoils and impact on the workability (the capability of the land to support tillage) and trafficability (the capability of the land to support agricultural traffic without degrading soils) of the land in some areas.  The Scottish Soil Framework (2009) contains particular emphasis on the pressures exerted by climate change and identifies the suite of relevant policies which aim to promote the sustainable management and protection of soils. Practical guidance to protect and improve farm soils, and therefore improve the profitability of farm businesses, has been coordinated and published by Scotland’s Rural College.

Whilst the future trends of crop yields are largely difficult to predict, Scotland’s highest input crops, such as potato, winter wheat and winter oilseed rape, are sensitive to out-of-the-ordinary weather. Farmers therefore need to:

• Consider utilising crop varieties that are known to be least sensitive to these extremes;
• Phase out practices that are damaging to soil and replace with practices that result in improved soil condition;
• Reduce reliance on sensitive crops by devising a wider range of economic products from less sensitive crops;
• Devise cropping systems that are more stable and resilient (e.g. based on varietal mixtures and mixed-species crops).

Crop diversification not only buffers impacts on crop production due to extreme events or increased variability, but can also increase the ability to suppress pest outbreaks and reduce pathogen transmission which can have critical impacts on yield and profitability. European greening measures, targeted at addressing a range of environmental challenges, includes crop diversification. The rules governing this applies to around 30% of Scotland’s farms, but it is estimated that only 800-900 will need to grow any additional crops to comply, though many farmers are likely to need to reduce the dominance of their main crop. Between 2014 and 2015 the area of cereal crops planted fell by approximately 4%, which is seen as a reaction to the new crop diversification rules. However, given the inter-annual variation it is not yet possible to determine if the increase in diversity shown since 2013 is significant.

Diseases, pests and parasites have the potential to cause significant economic damage to agricultural businesses and it is therefore vital to maintain and improve reporting, monitoring research and management of critical species. The climatic variables which drive outbreaks of potato blight and liver fluke are utilised to provide a forecast for farmers which can enable preventative management and minimise the risk. AHDB Potatoes (a division of the Agriculture & Horticulture Development Board) provide the free Blightwatch scheme for growers across the UK, based on Met Office data, which predicts pathogen activity on the basis of minimum air temperature and relative humidity (‘Smith Periods’).  Liver fluke risk is forecast based on meteorological factors which influence the likelihood of summer infection of vector snails (‘Ollerenshaw Index’), which is presented as regional fluke forecasts online at the National Animal Disease Information Service.

Whilst farmers are more aware of the risk of liver fluke as a result of recent increased incidence, the tendency is to be more reactive than proactive and treat the stock with chemical flukicides. However the emergence of flukicide resistance is reducing the ability to control the parasite in endemic areas. Preventative measures such as pasture drainage to limit the suitable habitat for the intermediate host snails, need to be considered in conjunction with other land and water management requirements in order to provide sustainable options. In some areas, however, there is likely to be conflict with wetland/ agri-environment schemes for which the snails may act as an indicator species or be a conservation target.

Chemical control is also the main component of late blight management with multiple applications of fungicides each season. Although drier summers are likely to reduce the incidence of potato late blight, an associated increase in irrigation may counteract the reduction in disease pressure. In addition, increased temperatures mean that when the disease does occur it is likely to spread more rapidly. Increasing fungicide usage carries negative economic and environmental consequences, but current research funded by AHDB Potatoes aims to produce a more refined decision support system to improve decision making for growers and optimise the efficiency of fungicide use. Long term, growers may also need to adapt by growing potato cultivars with higher levels of blight resistance, but currently, processing quality and yield are the main drivers of variety choice which is demand led by supermarkets and processors.

There is generally good data availability regarding the risk of certain critical pests and diseases and recording of actual outbreaks. However, impact is largely represented by prevalence data rather than evidence of economic or biodiversity loss which could aid in the promotion of improved and sustainable management strategies both at farm and policy level. There also needs to be a greater emphasis on understanding which crop varieties, livestock breeds and agricultural systems are more resilient to climate change in general. Further research is also required to understand the scale and impact of changing land suitability and to develop integrated land-use planning strategies which take this into account. 

Sharing research findings and practical experience is a critical element in improving the resilience of Scotland’s agriculture as a whole. The Farming for a Better Climate programme provides practical advice, a forum for the farming sector and investigates, tests and shares practical measures to improve farm profitability via their Climate Change Focus Farms. Centres of expertise  such as EPIC (Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreak) and the planned Centre of Expertise for Plant Health bring together Scottish-based expertise to provide effective knowledge exchange, promote innovative thinking and coordinate research and analysis to provide evidence-based advice which supports policy development and implementation.

What do the indicators tell us?

CXC’s indicators focus on various aspects of exposure and vulnerability of Scotland’s agricultural sector to climatic changes; some of the resulting impacts which can influence productivity within the sector; and highlight actions to improve resilience to the risks and capitalise on potential opportunities:

The RISK (and opportunity) from climatic factors directly or indirectly influencing the suitability and productivity of current agricultural land use and management practice:

• Area of Prime Agricultural Land (Land Capability) monitors the amount of prime agricultural land in Scotland over time. This indicator needs to be considered in combination with other aspects of land capability, notably drought risk and wetness risk (see Wetness risk for agriculture (arable suitability and grassland suitability), and Drought risk to agricultural land). There are approximately 11,000km²of prime agricultural land in Scotland. Prime land has increased by ca. 4% but most expansion occurred during 1971-1990 and there have only been small changes since (though with distinctive geographic variations). The total amount of prime land stabilised in the most recent reference period (1991-2010), but future projections indicate a significant expansion (20-40%).
• Comparison of land capability against actual land use seeks to characterise the relationship between the capability of the land and its actual use, although as yet no single value indicator has been devised to summarise this relationship. The most recent published figures defining the relationship are for 2011 though data to support analysis for 2000-2014 are available. Given the growing body of evidence that the LCA classification is changing in response to weather and climate, understanding how this potential relates to actual changes in land cover is vital. A key limitation in using this indicator is the difficulty in adequately attributing change in land use to a host of complex and inter-related drivers: climate induced changes in capability together with environmental, economic, social and political drivers.
• Wetness risk for agriculture (arable suitability and grassland suitability) utilises a component of Land Capability for Agriculture that identifies constraints on land use options through its limitations on trafficability and workability for arable land and poaching risk from livestock on improved grassland. Most climate projections imply that average annual wetness risk will be reduced particularly in East Scotland which may enhance land use options for currently marginal areas. However, many upland areas (and North-West Scotland in particular) will continue to be limited by saturation of soils.
• Drought risk to agricultural land uses a component of Land Capability for Agriculture that identifies constraints on land use options through its limitations on water availability in the soil. Currently, a small amount of land suitable for arable cropping is exposed to drought risk due to the limited available water capacity of the soil at these locations but there is evidence that drought risk can become more pronounced in extreme years. Some future climate scenarios suggest that by 2050 as much as 50% of prime land may be defined as of moderate or severe risk of drought.
• Area of cultivation under glass or plastic structures uses data from the annual Agricultural Census to monitor the degree to which these structures are used to grow high quality soft fruits. Whilst growing under such structures can improve resilience to extreme weather and extend the growing period, these structures also increase the risk of some pests and diseases. The area of this type of crop management has increased from 80 hectares in 2003 to 1122 hectares in 2014, with the greatest increase being in 2012. It is important that the extent of structures, together with the efficacy of pest and disease management and impacts on surrounding land, are monitored to ensure they contribute to successful adaptation and not maladaptation.
• Risk of liver fluke (Fasciola hepatica) in cattle and sheep monitors the risk to Scottish sheep and cattle farmers from this highly pathogenic flatworm parasite, whose distribution and abundance can be largely determined by climatic conditions. The average risk of summer infection has increased over the past four decades, in part due to milder winters which result in an increased survival rate of flukes and host snails.

The IMPACT on factors influencing productivity and the suitability of land use and management practice:

• Crop yields (including agronomic inputs and variability) examines changes in both crop yield itself along with the accompanying levels of fertiliser and pesticides used. Yields have been generally stable for at least the last 15 years, however the potential variability due to weather extremes is highlighted by the drop in 2012 due to the wet summer and autumn, as well as the high point in 2014 due to the particularly warm summer. It is the highest input crops (e.g. potatoes, winter wheat and oilseed rape) which are most susceptible to unusual or extreme weather and farmers will need to consider a variety of strategies to reduce their sensitivity.
• Abstraction of water for irrigation shows that during 2013 approximately 17 million cubic metres of water were abstracted for irrigation purposes which was 39% of the total licensed volume. Abstraction levels were significantly higher in the East reflecting the dominance of arable farming in this area. The greatest abstraction occurred in the Tay region which coincides with the area projected to see the greatest increases in irrigation demand.
• Range and prevalence of climate marker pests and diseases in crops: Number of potato blight outbreaks examines any changes in this potentially devastating disease whose cycle is driven by available moisture and temperature. Across Great Britain, 267 outbreaks were reported in 2014, but there is no clear trend observable from the data currently available over the previous decade.
• Prevalence of liver fluke (Fasciola hepatica) in cattle and sheep shows there has been a consistent increase in liver fluke incidence over the last 15 years, with the latest prevalence figures showing 16%-17% infection rates in sampled cattle and sheep. Whilst changing weather patterns have contributed to this increase, animal movement, flukicide resistance, and wetland restoration are also potential drivers of change.

Evidence of ACTION which can increase resilience of farming to the risks and capitalise on potential opportunities created by climate change:

• National agricultural crop portfolio and diversity index monitors diversification in Scotland’s crop portfolio as this has the potential to improve resilience by e.g. reducing pathogen transmission and buffering impacts on crops due to increased climate variability or extreme events. There has been no significant overall trend in diversity over the last 6 years, but between 1988 and 2015 there was an overall decline largely dictated by an increase in both wheat and oilseed rape and a decline in the dominance of spring barley. However, spring barley continues to dominate, with nearly half of all arable land in Scotland utilised for its production.

Other relevant indicators

Crop suitability and productivity are very closely related to the state of agricultural soils. This is examined in more detail in the narrative (and associated indicators) Condition of agricultural soils.

To realise an agricultural opportunity, while retaining the biodiversity and wider ecosystem service value of land, careful management is required. Historically, agricultural intensification has been the primary driver in depleting the range of ecosystem services delivered by agriculture. This is examined in more detail in the narrative (and associated indicators) Sustainable agriculture.

Climate change is also expected to bring both risks and opportunities to Scotland’s productive forestry. Two narratives (and associated indicators) focus on key issues for this other land-based industry:

• Pests, diseases and invasive species (forestry)
• Suitability and productivity (forestry)

Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) theme: Natural environment

SCCAP objectives:
N2: Support a healthy and diverse natural environment with capacity to adapt

Is Scotland’s natural environment resilient to climate change?

Our natural environment is changing and will continue to change due to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. The exact nature of this change is uncertain because of the complex interactions between climate and other pressures on the web of species and habitats that make up our ecosystems. In turn these pressures affect the ability of ecosystems to provide services such as flood management, food and timber resources, carbon sequestration, landscapes of cultural, recreational and tourism value and helping to regulate air and water quality.

Direct impacts of climate change include the loss of some coastal habitats such as machair, one of the rarest habitats in Europe, due to sea level rise. Projected warmer, drier springs and summers are expected to lead to an increased wildfire risk and reduced water levels and flows in lochs and rivers. The projected increased frequency of intense, heavy rainfall events will result in more frequent flooding and soil erosion. Impacts that are indirectly related to climate change include an increased threat from some pests and diseases such as Dothistroma needle blight and invasive species such as rhododendron.

Apart from climate change, the natural environment is subject to a range of other pressures. Many of these are related to land use, land management and demand for resources. The warming climate is likely to lead to more land in Scotland being suitable for intensive cultivation (arable farming). Together with projected increases in global food demand, this is likely to drive intensification of agricultural activity. Scotland’s native woodlands are under pressure from multiple sources including non-native tree planting, habitat fragmentation, invasive non-native plants and animals, plant pests and diseases, deer browsing and atmospheric pollution.

Any of these pressures may impair the ability of habitats and the species they support to withstand the impacts of climate change. To build their resilience to this threat it is important to manage those pressures that we can influence. Ecosystems, habitats and species that are in good condition will be better able to withstand climate change. Larger and better connected areas of habitat are often more resilient and can help enable some species to move location in order to find suitable areas of habitat in a changing climate.

Climate projections indicate significant areas where active peat formation may no longer occur. Therefore it is important to protect existing peat resources and ensure appropriate hydrological conditions are created. Deep peat soils represent a very significant carbon store. Losing just 1% of our deep peat would release over 16 megatonnes of carbon to the atmosphere; more than Scotland’s total annual carbon emissions. The main threat for release of carbon from peatlands arises from degradation of these soils due to factors like erosion, drainage, fire, afforestation, over-grazing, pollution and peat extraction.  While land management is often at the root of these factors, this degradation can also be a ‘natural ‘process impacted to some extent by more recent shifts in climate.

The resilience of the terrestrial environment is closely linked to our water environment; for example land management practices can influence water quality and flood risk. Management actions need to be undertaken at a large enough scale to capture a complex web of ecosystem interconnections, such as landscape scale conservation or river catchment scale management.

Different views exist on the concept of resilience of the natural environment to climate change and what it means, e.g. how much resilience is enough? ‘Resilience’ is described by SNH as ‘a property which allows an ecosystem to maintain its characteristics under the impacts of novel processes and shocks’[1].

 Climate projections provide us with an indication of how Scotland’s climate may change in future. As mentioned above, there is much greater uncertainty surrounding the response of natural systems to these changes. The complex interactions within ecosystems, future development of pressures such as pests and diseases and land use changes (for example associated with climate change mitigation such as renewable energy) make it inherently difficult to predict responses to climate change. So it is difficult to know whether a species, habitat or system is resilient to climate change. There is a clear need to better understand the responses of natural systems to climate change. We know that healthy, biodiverse systems in good condition are more likely to withstand external pressures. To tackle some of these fairly intractable issues, a good starting point is to identify what is known about the condition of our natural environment now, the changes or trends that have been observed and what factors might have contributed to these changes. The indicators presented here gather that knowledge together to help build our understanding.

[1] Valluri-Nitch and Stone, 2015 http://www.snh.gov.uk/docs/A1744865.pdf

Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP)  theme: Natural environment

SCCAP objectives:
N2: Support a healthy and diverse natural environment with capacity to adapt

How is climate change affecting the pests, diseases and invasive species which threaten Scotland’s forestry and woodland biodiversity?

Pests, diseases and invasive non-native species (INNS) have the potential to disrupt key ecosystem functions and cause significant economic damage. Milder winters and warmer, wetter springs are likely to increase the risk from some over-wintering pests and diseases as a result of increased activity, reduced winter mortality and the potential to complete more generations in a season, resulting in larger populations. Other effects may be more indirect and result from a reduction in ecosystem resilience and therefore increased susceptibility to pathogens due to damage or stress as a result of drought, temperature extremes or storms. Changes in average temperature and rainfall will also alter the distribution of some native woodland species, facilitate the establishment of INNS and increase the invasive tendency of some.

Whilst the climate response function of these organisms vary, and non-climatic drivers (e.g. deliberate or accidental introduction via human activities) are often more significant, there are a number of organisms where climate is seen to be a critical driver which are already causing considerable impact to Scotland’s economy and wildlife. Two of the most significant risks come from:

• Phytophthora ramorum– a fungus-like pathogen whose distribution and prevalence is to a large extent determined by climatic factors. It poses a particular threat to larch, one of Scotland’s most important timber species, causing significant damage and mortality to infected plants.
• Dothistroma needle blight- which has become the most significant disease affecting coniferous trees in the UK and poses a particular threat not only to Scotland’s commercial forestry but also to native Caledonian pinewoods. It is believed that an increase in intense rainfall episodes coupled with warmer springs may have optimised conditions for spore dispersal.

Scotland’s forestry supply chain has numerous stages, from nurseries, forest management, and timber harvesting, through to transport, and processing. This supply chain needs to develop resilience in the face of climate change. However, climate change will impact on the stages of the chain in different ways, increasing the complexity of the interdependencies between the stages. Scotland’s forest sector also has interdependencies with other sectors, including agriculture and construction, which are also expected to be impacted by climate change. These impacts, and changes made in response to them, may have secondary impacts for the forest sector.

This report sets out a theoretical overview of climate change impacts on Scotland’s forestry supply chain, with a focus on forest wood products. It looks at impacts on the natural environment including forests, but also on infrastructure such as energy, water, transport and communication, and on business operations.

The lists of impacts are not and will never be exhaustive. The focus is on growers and nurseries, forest management, harvesting, transport, and wood processing. The aim is to provide a framework for discussion with forestry sector experts that:

• identifies climate change impacts on the forestry supply chain, and potential consequences of adaptation practices implemented in response; and
• ensures that lack of adaptive capacity at any stage does not restrict the overall resilience of the sector.

The Scottish Government is considering introducing a new Climate Change Bill, which will amend the existing Climate Change Act (Scotland) 2009 to strengthen the emissions reduction target for 2050 in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement objectives to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C

ClimateXChange, on behalf of the Scottish Government, has commissioned this Rapid Evidence Assessment (REA) and synthesis of key global assessments of the costs and benefits of climate change action in order to give context to Scottish Government’s decisions and as a basis for continuing policy development.

The study focuses on literature that has emerged since the Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change (Stern 2007), and seeks to build upon previous review exercises.

A key message arising from this review is that estimates of climate impacts are inherently uncertain, so that climate policy needs to be assessed in terms of risk management, rather than straight-forward cost-benefit analysis.

The balance of evidence suggests that although the mid-point estimates of abatement cost may be higher than the mid-point damage estimates, it is reasonable to conclude that there is a considerable risk of much higher-than-expected damages which would justify the cost of ambitious abatement action. This is in line with the conclusion arising from climate risk literature suggesting that reducing the risk of exceeding tipping points is a key reason to aim for strong abatement targets globally.

Countries report in different ways against different climate change targets, making both cross-country and within-country comparisons difficult. This report describes the key differences between greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting frameworks underlying international and domestic national climate change targets and reporting. The analysis uses examples from Ireland, France, Denmark, Sweden, Estonia, Norway, New Zealand and Mexico.

The report clarifies how countries with national climate change targets account for progress towards these targets, relative to their internationally reported GHG inventories.

The analysis show that there is substantial convergence on the use of comparable accounting methods, driven by UNFCCC reporting. It appears that the same underlying GHG data is typically adapted for accounting against different targets. UNFCCC accounting (plus, for most developed countries, KP accounting) provides the core comprehensive dataset, from which elements can be removed or recalculated as required. The fact that UNFCCC accounting is highly standardised for developed countries ensures a high degree of consistency, whereas more variation is to be expected from developing countries.

The research has been based on a desk review of relevant documentation from each country, carried out in November 2017.

Further research in spring 2018 compares greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for leading climate change jurisdictions.  

There are a number of methods available for appraising adaptation decisions. This project introduces the concept of adaptation economics and reviews traditional and emerging analysis techniques, and gives examples of how they can be used.

Looking at how to do robust cost/benefit analysis is important in relation to adaptation policies, for example in making decisions about how to implement policies and proposals in the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (currently out for consultation). The analysis needs to take into account the considerable uncertainties relating to climate change.

Traditional economic approaches have limitations in how they measure cost/benefit of adaptation action.

Emerging techniques may be better suited to measuring the costs and benefits of adaptation, helping to:

• prioritise action with limited resources
• understand the consequences and costs of not adapting;
• avoid over- and under-spend in adaptation; and
• plan the best approach that also leaves options available in future.

The ASCEND workshop brought together policy, business, research and other communities to discuss the challenges of whole energy systems analysis and decision-making across scales, and identify opportunities for improved analysis and strategy.

Participants first looked at the energy system as a whole, including:

• model-linking across scales,
• system integration across vectors,
• good practice in scenario design; and
• dealing with uncertainty in decision-making.

The afternoon focused on cross-scale analysis and strategy in the heat sector, looking at issues such as

• linking national strategy with local master-planning,
• iterating between long-term whole system pathways and emerging demonstration and pilot studies; and
• how to represent new policy drivers (industrial strategy, local economic impacts, equity and affordability) in whole systems analysis.

The event, held at ECCI in November 2017, formed part of the ‘Ascend’ scoping project, supported by the EPSRC (Engineering and Physical Science Research Council) and Energy Systems Catapult. The project involves the universities of Birmingham, Leeds and Edinburgh, and University College London. The workshop showcased emerging findings from project researchers and others.

For more information, please contact Dr Mark Winskel at the University of Edinburgh.

The Scottish Government has set very ambitious targets and policies in its Climate Change Plan to decarbonise the energy system. The Scottish TIMES model is as a key tool informing these new climate change policies.

TIMES is a well-known, widely used model. However, the adequacy of TIMES for energy efficiency policy analysis has not been assessed in the literature. This report sets out the potential for using TIMES to understand the system impacts of energy efficiency improvements.

The main challenges identified in the specific context of using TIMES for energy efficiency analysis are:

• Energy efficiency implementation in TIMES is not straightforward. Several approaches could be followed, delivering potentially different results.
• Decisions are cost driven. The cost minimisation algorithm would lead to outcomes involving extreme specialisation (corner solutions), if not prevented by user determined constraints (e.g. imposing maximum shares for different technologies).
• Energy demands and actions and reactions across the wider economy impacts are not modelled within TIMES. More generally, market “problems” and other drivers for consumer behaviour are not captured.

From a policy analysis perspective, TIMES is a very powerful tool that could be used to support decision making. Therefore, building on the model’s strengths, the report discusses possible TIMES uses and ways to go forward, grouped as:

• using TIMES as it is;
• developing TIMES improvements; and
• soft-linking with other models.

This research reviews the actions being taken by some countries and regions, aspiring to leadership on tackling climate change, and how they are dealing with the challenges of meeting ambitious climate goals.

The analysis focuses on national greenhouse gas (GHG) targets, sectoral targets, legislation, the role of carbon trading and offsetting, and the achievability of targets in some European countries (EU and non-EU), Mexico and two US states.

Reflecting on the European case studies produced by ClimateXChange, the research also considers the common themes for success in setting ambitious and aspirational climate change policy.

Key findings from the research include:

• Ambitious targets are being set by a range of countries across Europe (in and out of EU), and elsewhere. These include overall and sectoral GHG targets. States and regions are also raising the bar.
• Targets vary according to starting point, political situation and culture.
• The influence of international agreements and blocs, including the Paris Agreement and EU, have been critical to stimulating action. Despite this, countries and regions outside blocs (Norway and Mexico) have set and are meeting stretching targets, and regions (such as US states) are retained their commitments despite national policy vacuums.
• Many targets are proving difficult to meet. This shouldn’t deter from high ambition. As the economic, business and social benefits become increasingly apparent, countries and regions which embark on decarbonisation pathways will save money in the long term, deliver a more resilient society to their citizens and show businesses the policy certainty they need to make long term investments in low and zero-carbon infrastructure.
• A number of countries have stated the intention to trade international credits to meet their targets and have the legal flexibility to do so.
• However, of concern, the EU has stated that meeting targets is dependent on the continued action of others.