How do people feel about wind farms when they are given an opportunity to learn more about the topic and consider and discuss it as part of a group?

This unique research project, the most comprehensive of its kind and a world first, asked three groups of people (citizens’ juries) to come up with criteria for decision making about onshore wind farms in Scotland. Despite the diversity of views in the groups, all three juries managed to develop and agree a list of principles, showing that people from very different backgrounds and with varying perspectives can work together through difficult issues and come up with solutions.

Scottish Planning Policy emphasises the importance of public engagement, requiring that it should be early, meaningful and proportionate. This project’s focus was to research public engagement and the potential for use of citizens juries in the decision making process.

Due to its cross-disciplinary nature and the connection with the climate change and participation agendas, the project was owned by CXC, the Edinburgh Centre for Carbon Innovation (ECCI) and the researchers themselves, without a specific policy customer. A multi-disciplinary research team ran citizens’ juries over two days each in three locations across Scotland with varying proximity to built and planned wind farms.

The ambitious research design broke new ground, had clear policy relevance and a link to the participation agenda in government. As such the project delivered transferrable lessons for any policy area.

“Involving people and communities in decision-making leads to better results, more responsive services and gives communities the chance to have a say on how ideas are delivered. This exciting project offers valuable lessons which will help our efforts to boost participation in local democracy and improve community engagement.”

Marco Biagi MSP, Minister for Local Government and Community Empowerment, address to launch event for Citizens Juries report, May 2015

The Wind Farm Impacts Study report, which is the first of its kind in the world, is rigorous and ensures appropriate siting of wind farms. Studies like this will make sure this improvement continues, and we will consider the recommendations carefully.

Scottish Government Renewables Routemap (2015; p. 13)

The potential impact of a wind farm development is central in the planning process. The Wind Farm Impacts Study was initiated following anecdotal evidence that the noise, shadow flicker and visual impacts on people living beside wind farms was not adequately assessed in the planning process. Groups campaigning against wind farms had been very active in the public debate with criticism of how local residents were prepared for the impact, and how it was measured: Was the planning system supporting accurate assessments of these impacts in advance of the schemes being constructed, and were people being sufficiently protected through the planning system?

From the start this project was designed with a stakeholder steering group which included both proponents and opponents of wind farms, to ensure the potentially contested results would be widely accepted. As a result of tight project management and the stakeholder scrutiny throughout the process, the robust report contained a series of well evidenced and forward looking recommendations. Stakeholders remain engaged and are taking forward discussions on how the recommendations can be addressed.

Through deep and regular engagement across all stakeholder groups we built relationships between the stakeholders that can be used to continue policy appraisals and deliberations. Our value was not just as ‘host’ for the research but also as chair of the steering group and arbiter of the perspectives represented on that group. The CXC project manager also acted as the public face of the project – projecting independence and neutrality vis a vis the interested public, the media, direct project stakeholders and the onshore wind industry.

Bringing in a wide steering group had profound impact on the design of the Wind Farm Impacts Study. Given the contentious nature of the issue, the credibility of the project rested with having the backing of the full range of stakeholders. Designing this into how the project was shaped and developed provided a forum where the different views could be discussed.

Contingency plans have the potential to increase adaptive capacity by enabling more rapid and efficient response to climate change risk events. As such, contingency plans provide economic benefits to forestry businesses, minimise the disruption to the natural environment, and support Scotland’s forests in continuing to deliver the widest range of ecosystem services.

This paper considers when contingency plans are necessary, and explores which climate risks to the forest sector in Scotland may benefit from national or regional contingency plans.

Contingency plans already exist across the forestry sector in Scotland, containing pre-agreed processes to be followed in response to a particular risk event, e.g. tree health and windblow contingency plans. However, we recommend that contingency planning should be part of the forest sector at all scales, from national and regional policy and planning to local application by forest managers. The plans should also cover wildfire, drought and flooding, and include projected impacts on infrastructure and forest businesses, and on important conservation habitats.

There is anecdotal evidence of overheating being an issue in some NHS facilities and in care homes, however the extent of this problem is not currently well understood.

ClimateXChange commissioned a scoping study to establish how extensive existing internal temperature data are which could be used to inform possible future research on the potential impacts of overheating in buildings housing vulnerable people in Scotland.

The study, which considered five sample hospitals with in-patient facilities, drew on questionnaire responses from facility teams, on-site surveys, and investigation and analysis of suitable data at this sites.

The research shows that given the complex, and in many cases, site specific nature of thermal comfort and overheating issues in hospital buildings, it may not be appropriate to link / group common overheating ‘issues’ to common hospital archetypes.

It was also found that whilst all sites generally aim to operate with a target operational temperature in the region of 21 to 22°C, there is anecdotal evidence of overheating issues being present in four out of the five sites examined within the study, at least at certain times of year, under specific external conditions or in specific areas of the facility. The study found that all sites generally used windows that could be opened, local fans and curtains/blinds to mitigate overheating, with varying levels of success. 

Whilst anecdotal evidence of overheating was identified, the study found a significant lack of data that would enable a robust assessment of overheating in in-patient areas. As no robust or easily interrogate-able data is logged or otherwise available, the study recommends that consideration be given to undertaking a programme of cost effective monitoring (of selected in-patient facilities) to capture data that will enable a robust assessment of the nature and severity of overheating at selected sites.

SCCAP theme: Buildings and infrastructure

SCCAP objectives:
B1: Understand the effects of climate change and their impacts on building and infrastructure networks
B2: Provide the knowledge, skills and tools to manage climate change impacts on buildings and infrastructure

How will climate change affect impacts caused by extreme weather?

There are a wide range of impacts that arise from extreme and challenging weather in Scotland.  Some of these are likely to be exacerbated by climate change, while others may be relatively unaffected.  Four major impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure are given in the table below which shows the different effects of climate change on each issue.  Challenges due to snow and ice are expected to reduce as the century progresses.  Geo-hazards such as landslides are expected to increase.  Flooding, which will also increase, is covered in a separate narrative – Flooding, Infrastructure and Climate Change.

Adaption options

Adaptation actions for all four impact types fall into the following three categories:

• Reduce exposure to hazards (e.g. by providing more robust / better designed structures)
• Reduce the consequences of the hazard (e.g. by using the affected resource more prudently, by reducing other pressures, and through preparation and readiness)
• Improve recovery from the hazard impact (by investing in effective recovery procedures). 

Policy levers to reduce impacts and to speed up recovery times may often work indirectly – for example through the regulations that govern the operations of utility and service providers (of water, energy, telecoms, trunk road operators).  As an example, penalties for service interruption act to incentivise operators to invest in appropriate defence and recovery schemes (energy suppliers are subject to such a scheme).   In this case, adaptation is achieved by third parties (utility providers) responding to regulations and incentives / penalties that favour good performance in the face of climate change.

Appropriate standards and regulations are important both for the Built Environment and for transport networks.  In this sector the policy levers that can help to achieve adaptation and resilience are ‘climate-informed’ standards and regulations.  Scottish Government’s Building Standards Division has already assessed several of its building regulations in relation to climate change.  Examples include water efficiency requirements and resistance to wind-driven rain.  Trunk road and rail track specifications are also subject to updates that reflect changing climate challenges.

Preparedness also plays a vital role in reducing impacts.  Utilities, the emergency services and communities can all benefit from measures that improve preparedness and recovery mechanisms.  The Scottish approach is set out in ‘Ready Scotland’ which supports integrated emergency management (IEM) to deal with emergencies.  Scottish Government’s Resilience Division and a wide range of associated delivery agencies manage the strategies, resources and actions needed to address climate impacts, as set out in the publication ‘Preparing Scotland’.   Examples of adaptation actions include: 

Transport Scotland works with others to minimise the impact of geo-hazard interruptions to transport networks. Initiatives include the following:

• Improved design of new or replacement structures to render them more resistant (e.g. slope stabilisation to reduce landslide risk)
• Planned assessment and maintenance programmes for existing infrastructure
• Improvements in transport hazard warning systems (e.g. the service ‘Traffic Scotland’)
• Improving the readiness and coping capacity of business and communities for such events
• Improving response and recovery mechanisms

Scottish Water is a key player in addressing reduced water availability, and actions include:

• Promotion of water efficiency measures and behaviours in homes and businesses
• Addressing water leakage rates 
• Capital investment in water infrastructure
• Improving the readiness and coping capacity of business and communities for such events
• Graded tariff structures designed to promote water efficiency (not yet in use in the UK)

Building Standards ensures that building regulations keep pace with climate change, so as to minimise the potential problems stemming from wind-driven rain.  Actions in this area include:

• Updating building standards so as to accommodate increasing climate challenges such as wind-driven rain and reduced water availability in summer
• Improving ventilation, drying facilities and occupant practice within existing buildings so that other sources of dampness and condensation are reduced 
• Supporting the retrofit of remediation measures for existing building stock

A range of utility providers work to ensure that the impact from damage to energy and ICT networks caused by storms, winds and lightning is kept to a minimum.  Actions include:

• Upgrading infrastructure to improve resilience to climate challenges
• Providing back-up servicing for vital facilities (eg power and ICT in hospitals)
• Improving the readiness and coping capacity of business and communities for such events

Improving response and recovery mechanisms to hasten the return to normal service

What do the indicators tell us?

The suite of indicators on challenging and extreme weather impacts cover the following:

Risks

Geo-hazards:  Older bridges (pre-20^th century) are more likely to be at risk of scour.  Major modern bridges are rarely susceptible due to advances in structural design and understanding of scour.   Recent figures show that under 11% of trunk road bridges have a moderate or higher susceptibility to scour.  However, over 50% of rail bridges are at moderate or higher risk of scour.  It is anticipated that climate change will increase scour risk for all bridges, but particularly for older bridge assets. See Road and rail bridges vulnerable to scour BT26

Buildings and wind-driven rain:  Buildings in a good state of repair are more likely to be robust in the face of extreme weather.  Disrepair may also increase the likelihood of penetrating damp.  The proportion of housing with some form of disrepair has remained similar since 2004, and disrepair is more common in older buildings.  28% of the Scottish Housing stock has some critical element disrepair that is also urgent.  See Building condition and disrepair BB16 (note that this indicator is both a risk and an action indicator) and Number of households/people falling below the SHQS & Tolerable Standard CRS58

Water supply:  At present, water shortages are not a serious problem in Scotland, and since 2003 there have only been four times where the water supply was at serious risk.   The percentage of customers relying on zones in deficit fell from 30% to under 6% between 2007/2008 and 2013/2014.  This was due to Scottish Water’s investments to improve water supply and to reduce leakage levels.   Nonetheless, nearly 40% of water supply zones still show a (theoretical) deficit in the calculated Supply Demand Balance (SDB) for 2014.  The incidence of deficit may increase unless water network investments keep pace with rainfall changes.  See Customers and zones vulnerable to supply deficit BW7 

See also:

Summer low flow events in Scottish rivers (Normalised Flow Index) NB27

Off-grid water supplies at risk of flooding CRS54

Impacts

Geo-hazards:  Landslides and scour are the two main geo-hazards affecting transport networks.  Over the 15 month period analysed there were 12 landslide events, causing 5 road closures (as compared to 567 flood events causing 8 road closures).  Landslides may result in road closures for several days. SeeLandslide events affecting the road network; Road closures due to landslides BT22/23; for comparison, see also Flood events affecting the trunk road network BT4

Effects of wind-driven rain:  Dampness in housing can arise either from condensation or from penetrating or rising damp.   Over 86% of housing sampled was free from any signs of damp or condensation in 2013. Of the remaining stock, around 3.7% shows signs of penetrating dampness, 0.7% had rising damp, and condensation affected 10.3%.  Only 1.3% suffered from both dampness and condensation. See Dampness in housing stock; Condensation in housing stock BB17/18 

Extreme weather and power supply:  High winds and lightning are both a major cause of interruptions to the power supply.  Winds and gales caused over 50% of lost time (570, 000 days-worth of customer interruption), snow, sleet and blizzard over 22%, and lightning over 15%.  Solar heat has a negligible impact at present (causing less than 0.5% of lost time). Various other weather-related causes of disruption, also of negligible impact, include ice, rain, subsidence, and freezing fog.  See Electricity supply disruption caused by severe weather events BE15.

ACTIONS:

Buildings:  Those in a good state of repair are more likely to be robust in the face of extreme weather, and more resistant to penetrating damp.  The proportion of housing with some form of disrepair has remained similar since 2004, and disrepair is more common in older buildings.  28% of the Scottish Housing stock, 28%, has some critical element disrepair that is also urgent. See: Building condition and disrepair BB16 (this is also a risk indicator).

Reduced Water Supply:  Scottish Water has successfully reduced leakage to the ‘Economic Level of Leakage’ (ELL) a year ahead of target – the point where the cost of reducing leakage becomes greater than the savings from reduced water production.   See Water leakage and losses BW6 

Water consumption per capita has fallen only very slightly since 2008/9.  Non-domestic water usage has reduced more noticeably. See Domestic water usage BW8, and Non-domestic water usage BW9.

It is hoped that future availability of suitable data will enable the development of a number of additional indicators:

• Uptake of water efficiency measures by domestic users
• Uptake of water efficiency measures by water intensive industries 
• Insurance claims due to storm damage
• Extent of Greenspace in Urban Areas
• Road network at risk of a landslide
• Risk of loss of road connectivity in remote areas as a result of landslides
• Landslide events affecting the road network
• Significant known road landslide risks addressed through intervention
• Road infrastructure spend on landslide mitigation measures
• Road and rail bridges in remote areas vulnerable to scour
• Bridge failures or unplanned closures due to scour-related issues
• Road closure days due to scour-related bridge damage

Other relevant indicators

Impacts from challenging weather such as high winds, storms, and lightning may occur at the same time as flooding impacts. The narrative covering Flooding and Infrastructure covers a wide range of indicators for this area. 

Some of the indicators covered in the Resilience and Resource Usenarrative are also linked, for example those tracking reduction in water leakage.

The health impacts as a result of storms, floods and extreme temperatures are covered by the narrative on Climate change risks to society and our capacity to adapt. 

Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) theme: Society

SCCAP objectives:
S1: Understand the effects of climate change and their impacts on people, homes and communities
S2: Increase the awareness of the impacts of climate change to enable people to adapt to future extreme weather events
S3: Support our health services and emergency responders to enable them to respond effectively to the increased pressures associated with a changing climate

How are climate change risks affecting Scottish society and how well prepared are we?

A changing climate will affect all sectors of society, with the potential to cause significant economic and social disruption.

Our indicators for the Society theme of the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) collectively provide an overview of the current state of resilience of Scottish society, covering both social and economic measures. They establish a baseline of vulnerability and exposure (risk), actual impacts (where these exist and are being measured), and any adaptation actions that are being taken forward under the SCCAP.

Society’s exposure and vulnerability to climate change can be difficult to quantify. Quantitative measurement, such as the number of households at risk of a significant flood event, provides only part of the picture. It is difficult to assess the non-material risks to society as a whole – in particular the risks to health and wellbeing. There are significant gaps in data and knowledge, especially in relation to the risks and impacts of climate change on wellbeing and mental health.

Climate change is very likely to increase precipitation and the number of heavy rainfall events (≥25mm in any 24 hour period). Inevitably, the number of flooding incidents will increase unless infrastructure and buildings are adapted to cope. 

Flooding is relatively rare in Scotland but can have a devastating impact on those whose homes or businesses are flooded. Flooding of community services like health centres or schools can have wide ranging consequences. Flooding of emergency services premises – fire, police and ambulance  – has the potential to disrupt entire regions.

There is currently little data to assess communities’ exposure and vulnerability to the impact of extreme weather-related flooding on community services. This is an important aspect of resilience as communities are dependent on the services provided by GP and dental surgeries, hospitals, schools and emergency services.  Scotland’s 14 Local Flood Risk Management Plans should provide a clearer picture in future.

For Scotland, distributional differences should not be under-estimated, noting in particular the challenges of remote rural islands.  Sparse and/or aggregated (national scale) data make accurate assessment of localised impacts difficult. 

We also have a limited understanding of the extent to which adaptive capacity is being built through social capital.[1]  To meaningfully monitor change in adaptive capacity, assessment requires monitoring and evaluation metrics to be identified, agreed and designed into adaptation policies from the outset. In order to determine whether policies to build adaptive capacity are successful, need modification or should be replaced, we need quantitative assessments of their effectiveness and efficiency. Currently, this is not possible.

Adaptation options

Preparing Scotland istheScottish Government’s guidance on improving societal resilience.  It considers risk, impacts and actions under three broad headings: Prepare; Respond; Recover

1. Prepare: assess the risks by understanding vulnerabilities

Climate related risks frequently manifest as extreme weather events: extreme temperatures, flood, storms and high winds. These events impact directly on the material fabric of society for example by putting residential and non-residential properties at risk of flooding. The distribution of risks across different socio-economic groups is uneven, and depends on many factors including physical health, mental wellbeing, age, employment, financial health, mobility, and social inclusion and isolation.

Scotland’s Flood Risk Management Strategies (FRM Strategies) coordinate efforts to tackle flooding. They set the national direction of future flood risk management, helping to target investment and coordinate action across public bodies. Each of Scotland’s 14 Local Plan Districts has an FRM Strategy, which is used as a basis for better decision-making across flood risk management organisations.

Local Flood Risk Management Plans provide local detail about flood management actions for 2016-2021. Both Local Flood Risk Management Plans and Flood Risk Management Strategies will be updated every six years. 

Climate-related information is already included in Preparing Scotland: Warning and Informing.  Warnings and alerts are made available to the public through SEPA’s Floodline service. SEPA also collaborates with the Met Office to provide a more detailed Scottish Flood Forecasting Service integrating hydrological and metrological data, specifically for Category 1 and Category 2 Responders as defined in the Civil Contingencies Act (Scotland) 2004.

The SCCAP uses recommendations from Good Places Better Health to evaluate risks associated with societal preparedness, including, for example, an assessment of climate resilient housing stock against benchmarks provided by the Scottish Housing Quality Standard (SHQS).  

The corresponding risk reduction measures are important components of preparation. Innovation in demand-side efficiency and accelerating the development of new energy efficient technologies contribute to building adaptive capacity. Government support for energy efficiency has sought, through socio-economic targeting, to establish co-benefits in addressing economic disadvantage.

More generally, policies designed to build the capabilities necessary to improve societal resilience involve disseminating information, advice, guidance, education and support, and developing knowledge and skills.  The Scottish Government published a public engagement strategy in 2010 to raise awareness of adaptive actions that can be taken in response to the impacts of a changing climate and maximise the impact of the above policies.  Wider communication and engagement on climate change issues is ongoing, including a number of ‘Climate Ready’ action plans for the public and private sectors and communities  – see for example Adaptation Scotland’s visualisation tool, Climate Ready Places.

2. Respond: to threats and realised impacts

Responding to climate change requires developing appropriate knowledge and skills (capabilities) but its distributive and differentiated nature requires different capacity across communities and geographical areas.   

Capability refers to developing and disseminating the knowledge and skills needed to adapt.  Much of the responsibility for this knowledge transfer lies with Scotland’s Public Bodies.  Preparing Scotland is referenced frequently in the development of their delivery plans, indicating that they should be consistent with the framework and therefore able to deliver a coherent set of procedures for action. 

Capacity refers to the resources – human, financial and equipment – required to actually deliver the adaptation action plans. The success of any adaptation strategy will depend in part on broader economic considerations, particularly adequate capital funding. Any assessment of capacity must consider the availability of suitably trained personnel with access to the specialist equipment required for any given situation and the funds necessary to keep the training up to date and the equipment maintained.

Response can also be proactive where appropriately targeted interventions result in systemic improvements to overall resilience.

Risks associated with fuel poverty, for example, can exacerbate climate disadvantage and, consequently, lead to increased social vulnerability. Demand management through more efficient use of energy can contribute to reducing fuel poverty rates leading to a reduction in vulnerability and thereby an improvement in overall resilience.

Since 2009, Scottish Government has spent over £500m on fuel poverty and energy efficiency Programmes. HEEPS, the most recent of these, provided £65m of grant funding in financial year 2015 for eligible householders. This scheme will be developed further in the Scotland’s Energy Efficiency Programme (SEEP), which will see energy efficiency in both residential and non-residential building stock designated a National Infrastructure Priority from 2017.

3. Recover: by developing and applying coping strategies

Recovery is the primary goal of resilience.

Local and Regional Resilience Partnerships co-ordinate the multi-agency response necessary to support recovery from a range of events including but not limited to extreme weather.  The responsibilities for response and recovery are separate, although in practice this line is frequently blurred. Based on the principles of integrated emergency management (IEM), the emergency services work with other Category 1 and Category 2 Responders in Local or Regional Resilience Partnerships (LRP/RRP), depending on the scale of the event. In 2013, the eight Strategic Coordinating Groups (SCGs), corresponding to the eight regional police forces, were replaced by three RRPs (North, East and West), which in turn are broken down into 13 LRPs (3 in the North and East, 7 in the West). The RRPs benefit from many years of knowledge accumulated during the operation of the SCGs. However, the transition to unitary police and fire services continues to require organisational change; and the climate related elements of the new National Risk Register for Scotland would require regional and local interpretation in the Community Risk Registers being developed by LRPs.

While it is the consensus view that vulnerable groups are less able to recover from events, our understanding of how different elements of vulnerability – employment, income, health, access to services, etc. – affect resilience is not very well developed.  Indeed, the different methods adopted frequently prevent definitive conclusions being drawn: SEPA’s use of the Social Flood Vulnerability Index (SFVI), for example, considers 2 dimensions of vulnerability – social characteristics and financial indices – while Scottish Government studies frequently use the 7 domain Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD).

Economic resilience is another important element of the recovery process. For most of those affected, extreme weather events will undoubtedly have a financial impact, which can only be offset by insurance cover. Unfortunately, data disaggregated for Scotland is currently unavailable from the sources that would be expected to hold it – Association of British Insurers (ABI), the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Scottish Flood Forum – and so little can be said about the actual financial impacts of extreme weather events at the present time.

Policies like UK-wide Flood Re have been proposed for reinsuranceprotection. These are designed to keep the flood insurance element of insurance available and affordable to homeowners at risk of repeat flooding.

Where businesses are affected, broader economic issues can be at stake as they typically involve the livelihoods of more people than the business owner alone. The business itself may well provide services to the broader community. Pharmacies and post offices, for example, are recognised as Community Services in the SEPA National Flood Risk Management Strategies. Other types of business, particularly food retailers and their supply chains, part of the Critical National Infrastructure[1], may become increasingly important for community cohesion, especially if recovery is protracted.

In situations where events occur in succession, there is anecdotal evidence that the capacity of both those affected and those supporting the recovery process can be overwhelmed relatively quickly.

[1] Critical National Infrastructure (CNI): see http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2011/03/21095856/3 , for example

What do the indicators tell us?

For society, the risks presented by climate change and the impacts that are already identifiable frequently have multiple costs (and, occasionally, benefits).  This introduces an additional level of complexity when trying to produce a overall assessment of risk, impact and action. The inter-connection between different risks, impacts and actions is one, perhaps the, defining characteristic of Climate Ready Society. 

The RISK of flooding to households and community services

Progress towards a society that is resilient to climate change in Scotland is broadly positive with much more work required in some areas of policy to build adaptive capacity; distributional (geographical) and differential (socio-economic) spreads are apparent.

When considered only at national scale, current and projected effects of climate change on Scottish society as a whole could be considered to be relatively slight. However, this would fail to recognise the distributed nature of risks and impacts.

Using SEPA modelled data, just over 3% (79,200 properties) of residential properties are at risk from a 1 in 200 year flood event. Only 5.6% (350 assets) of Community Services – hospitals and care homes, GP and dental surgeries, education facilities, emergency services – are at risk in a similar return period. The risk to Infrastructure assets – electricity sub-stations; wastewater and water treatment works; and the transport networks – is similarly low. There is no comprehensive source of information on the uptake of property level protection at national scale.

Distributional differences are apparent, for example, for the 9% of properties supplied by private water supplies at risk of flooding, those in Highland & Argyll and Tayside are significantly more exposed than other regions.

In terms of differentiated risk, despite concerted efforts, some of the underlying causes of vulnerability continue to show year-on-year increases with economic disadvantage being a critical factor.

• BB1/BB3: Property (residential and non-residential) at risk of flooding.
• CRS12: Number of community services at significant risk of flooding
• CRS54: Off-grid private water supplies at risk of flooding
• CRS58: Number of households/people falling below the SHQS & Tolerable Standard
• CRS61: Number of household in fuel poverty
• CRS62: Domestic debt held with energy companies for the supply of electricity and gas
• BE5: Electricity substations located in areas at flood risk
• BE6: Customers reliant on electricity substations located in areas at flood risk
• BT9: Disruption risk to railway services as a result of flooding
• BW4: Wastewater treatment works in areas at flood risk
• BW5: Water treatment works in areas at flood risk

The IMPACT of extreme weather events

Excess deaths due to cold in winter have been falling steadily and significantly over the last 60 years.  Improvements in housing, improved health care, higher incomes and greater awareness of the risks of cold suggest that the link between winter temperatures and increased winter mortality may be weakening.

While mean winter temperatures are expected to rise, the impact of short-term exposure to very low temperature extremes (cold snaps) – hypothermia, cardiac and pulmonary diseases – is unlikely to change.  However, short-term exposure to high temperature extremes (heat-waves) – heatstroke, syncope and fatigue – is likely to increase. Premature deaths due to extreme heat are not considered to be a significant climate-related health risk in Scotland until at least the 2050s.

The number of hospital admissions directly attributable to flooding and other extreme weather events is low, currently fewer than 1,000 cases per year from all causes.

Across Scotland, between 2009 and 2015 the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service attended 3,308 flooding/water events which can be identified as potentially weather-related. The majority of these events affected residential dwellings, though community services were also impacted, particularly health and education facilities. Flooding events in Scotland rarely directly result in physical injury.

Modelled data from SEPA estimates the economic impact of flooding on residential and non-residential properties based on annual average damages (AAD) [1] at some £252m, primarily as a result of fluvial flooding (£141m) with roughly equal impacts from coastal (£53m) and pluvial (£58m).  In terms of absolute numbers, distributional differences between Local Plan Districts are very apparent: AAD from all sources of flooding of £66.6m in Clyde and Loch Lomond, two orders of magnitude less (£436,000) on Shetland for example. The actual cost of annual flood damages in Scotland ranges from around £210m for property damage to £780m for all property plus agriculture). 

• CRS8: Excess deaths due to extreme temperatures
• CRS9: Number of hospital admissions as a result of extreme weather events
• CRS20: Number of flood incidents attended by SFRS each year
• BT4: Flood events affecting the trunk road network
• BT12:  Flood events affecting the rail network
• BE4/14: Electricity supply disruption due to flooding

ACTIONS taken to reduce the risk and impact of flooding on households, community services and emergency services

Even though the actual risk is small (see above), the perceived risk as measured by the number of registrations for flood warnings and alerts has shown a steady increase year-on-year since the Floodline service was introduced in 2011. 

During Storm Desmond in December 2015, the Floodline website received over 100,000 user sessions (250,000 page views) in the space of 6 days, exceeding the previous record of 95,000 in August 2014. 550 new people registered for the service. The water level web page alone was viewed over 100,000 times and 64 notifications of flooding were notified through ‘Report a Flood’, a feature added recently. At the height of the event, 15 Alerts and 75 Warnings had been issued (including 2 Severe, the first time since the launch of the system that this level of risk had been identified).  Over 70,000 messages were sent via a variety of channels (email, fax, pager, SMS and voice messages).

Floodline is an example of a suite of policies aimed at building capability through the provision of information, advice, guidance, education and support (collectively ‘Knowledge Transfer’).  65% of the policies and proposals in the Climate Ready Society theme of the SCCAP are concerned with knowledge transfer to build resilience at different scale – individual, household, community and (responder) organisational – each with distributed (regional and national) characteristics and differences.

Of the 20 potential indicators identified to track progress in this area, only 2 can be developed currently as a result of the gaps in data identified during this study.

• CRS34: Number of registrations for flood warnings/alerts
• CRS64: Uptake of energy efficiency measures

Constraints

The datasets that have been identified to date cannot yet support a comprehensive, quantitative assessment of Scottish society’s capacity to prepare for, respond to and recover from climate related events. This observation is as important as what the indicators can tell us. It reflects a lack of systematic analysis work on societal resilience. 

While there are research groups working on aspects of the issue, we have found no systematic study of societal resilience.

Some 33 indicators overall could not be developed due to data availability/quality issues:

1. Number of (vulnerable) people at significant risk of heat stress
2. Number of households/(vulnerable) people at significant risk of flooding
3. Number of households (within most deprived communities) flooded each year
4. Uptake of SQHS Guidance on reducing damp and condensation
5. Uptake of flood defensive measures – property level prevention and protection
6. Cost benefit of defensive measures for all assets: residential, non-residential, critical infrastructure
7. Coverage of flood insurance
8. Insurance claims for residential properties resulting from flooding and other extreme weather events
9. Insurance claims for non-residential properties resulting from flooding and other extreme weather events
10. Insurance claims for consequential loss resulting from flooding and other extreme weather events
11. Number of school days lost each year due to flooding and other extreme weather events
12. Uptake of public awareness measures on heat waves
13. Heatwave action plans in place
14. Incidence of new [water/food borne] diseases, including changes in disease vectors and [water/food borne] pathogens as a result of climate change
15. Mortality and morbidity attributable to [food/water/vector] borne diseases
16. Number of psychiatric hospital admissions episodes attributable to flooding events each year
17. Hospital admissions due to respiratory disease attributable to algal or fungal/mould growth
18. Uptake of VTEC/E.coli Action Plan
19. Category 1 Responders risk assessment plans in place
20. Category 2 Responders risk assessment plans in place
21. Category 1 responder expenditure on emergency planning and response
22. Category 2 responder expenditure on emergency planning and response
23. Number of SCCAP Delivery Agencies programmes in place (covers 10 programmes)
24. SCCAP Delivery Agencies programmes expenditure
25. Uptake of awareness raising programmes (covers 6 programmes)
26. Uptake of public awareness measures on psychological effects of EWE [flood/storm]
27. Knowledge transfer of EWE [flood] risk areas
28. Knowledge Transfer of assets at risk of EWE [flood]: Households; Community Services; Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) assets
29. Operational capacity of Category 1 Responders
30. Uptake of measures to improve the effectiveness of Category 1 Responders
31. Operational capacity of Local/Regional Resilience Partnerships
32. Uptake of measures to improve the effectiveness of Local/Regional Resilience Partnerships
33. Number of deaths and injuries from flooding & storm events each year due to Category 1 Responder availability

Some qualitative comments can be made regarding the status of knowledge transfer programmes, where plans have been widely established and implementations are now following; the reporting obligations for Public Bodies, which will provide an important data source for tracking the progress of the Adaptation Programme, which are at different stages of maturity for those bodies with delivery responsibilities, the Category 1 Responders; the development of Community Risk Registers, which are now in place for all three RRPs and 3 have been published by SFRS for the 13 LRPs.  The Community Risk Registers will need to be reviewed in the light of the National Risk Register for Scotland, due to be published in 2017.

However, there are a number of areas where data are simply unavailable. The lack of disaggregated insurance data for Scotland, for example, means that it is not possible to calibrate the modelled data used by SEPA to assess flood risk with empirical event data.  Similarly, long-term assessment of mental health and wellbeing is required, going beyond the anxiety scores of post-event questionnaires, and taking account of different impacts of acute, sub-acute and long-term events.

An estimate of the efficiency of defensive flood measures may be informed once the Local Authority asset inventory, required by the Flood Risk Management Act 2009, has been developed, using the methods described in the Flood Hazard Research Centre’s ‘Multi-Coloured Handbook’ to assess economic impact.

Policies and proposals focused on the adaptive capacity of business, industry & services were absent from the SCCAP – in part as a result of a lack of engagement by the private sector in the consultation process.

No assessment of food poverty and food security risks are possible, reflecting, to some extent, the lack of policy levers addressing business impacts in the current SCCAP, particularly the adaptive capacity of supply chains. Food Standards Scotland is developing a climate change strategy, which will include an assessment of the risks and impacts of emergent food-borne pathogens. 

Separating a consideration of resilience to a changing climate from the development of more general societal resilience may be unhelpful. The ability to heat/cool households cost effectively, for example, is a fundamental need, which may be affected in a variety of different ways by a changing climate. In health and social care, the ability to attribute emergent health impacts to a climate signal is probably less important than recognising the fact that pandemics undermine resilience and make communities more vulnerable. A resilient community will be inherently less vulnerable to any hazard, including climate change.

[1] Economic damages incorporates: direct damages to non-residential and residential properties, indirect damages (drying out, temporary accommodation) to residential properties, additional emergency services costs, vehicle damages associated with residential properties, damages to arable agriculture, damages to roads surface caused by floodwater

Other relevant indicators

Risks and impacts of flooding on the infrastructure network are discussed in the Flooding and infrastructure narrative in relation to a range of indicators covering energy, transport, water as well as residential and non-residential property, all of which are relevant to society as a whole. So too, estimates of risk from dilapidated building fabric, resulting in rising damp and condensation (see BB17/18 Dampness in housing stock; Condensation in housing stock).

Water quality is considered further in the Water quality and availability narrative.

Ecosystem based adaptation approaches establish value in natural flood management solutions.   The value of alleviating flood by slowing water run-off through peatland restoration projects, which have the co-benefits of maintaining water quality in the face of peat degradation could be demonstrated by projects funded through the SNH Peatland Action Programme, for example (see Resilience of the Natural Environment narrative)

For more detailed analysis of climate change risks to society and Scotland’s ability to adapt, see our three assessments of societal resilience, health and well-being and capability and capacity.

Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) theme: Natural environment

SCCAP objectives:
N1: Understand the effects of climate change and their impacts on natural environment

How is climate change affecting Scotland’s natural water environment?

Scotland’s water environment provides resources essential to the country’s health and prosperity-drinking water, water supply for agriculture and industry, as a source of energy and location for recreation. Furthermore, Scotland’s lochs, rivers, estuaries and coast support a great diversity of habitats and species, with many of national and international importance.  The management of Scotland’s water resources is likely to face important challenges due to the impacts of climate change. Projected changes in the condition of water environments is likely to lead to significant changes in how ecosystems function, which in turn will affect the provision of ecosystem services, and the associated goods and services (e.g. clean water, food and energy) that are important to human well-being.

• Rising mean water temperatures and an increase in extreme temperature events combined with changes in precipitation patterns are likely to impact on the growth and survivorship of freshwater fish; enhance plant/algal growth; and alter the distribution and abundance of both native and invasive species.
• Increased temperatures and reduced precipitation will result in low summer flows and increase the vulnerability of aquatic ecology when water temperature is at its highest and habitat space and dissolved oxygen are at their lowest; migratory fish may also be prevented from moving upstream.
• An increase in high intensity rainfall events is likely to result in an increase in erosion of river banks, particularly where they have been destabilised by the removal of tree cover and other deep rooting vegetation.

The water environment cannot be viewed in isolation from the terrestrial environment in which it sits. Many of the risks posed by climate change to water bodies are due to knock-on impacts from the surrounding land and from potential changes in land use.

• Changing precipitation patterns and an increased likelihood of summer droughts will lead to reduced resources but higher water abstraction demands (particularly from irrigation).
• When combined with the presence of pollution sources the impact upon ecosystem functions from hydrological changes can be particularly severe.
  • During low flow events, there is reduced dilution capacity in rivers and, as a consequence, the concentrations of pollutants can increase markedly.
  • Warmer standing waters receiving high nutrient run-off as a result of greater intensity rainfall events could exacerbate algal blooms and eutrophication and increase loading of pollutants to the sea.

Changing patterns in agricultural land-use in response to the changing climate may alter the distribution and magnitude of these pressures.

Adaptation options

The state of Scotland’s water bodies as a whole has significantly improved over the last few decades. However, the Scottish Government recognises the need to continue to improve the general condition of the water environment in order to make it both more resilient in itself to the consequences of climate change as well as to provide a healthy resource that can benefit wider climate change adaptation.

The primary legislative driver for improving water quality is the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) that led to the Water Environment and Water Services (Scotland) Act 2003 (WEWS Act). The WEWS Act provides powers to regulate water activities, including wetlands and groundwater as well as rivers, lochs, transitional waters (estuaries) and coastal water. River basin management planning (RBMP) in Scotland sets out how these improvements to Scotland’s water environment will be phased, taking into account the time needed to develop and implement technical solutions, and make the required investments and adjustments without creating disproportionate burden. This should enable the pressures on water bodies to be reduced in a sustainable way to allow maintenance of or recovery to good or better status and enable the water environment as a whole to cope with the effects of climate change. Targets have been set for each waterbody for the time periods 2009-2015, 2015-2021 and 2021-2027.

Fundamental to the RBMP process is the legislative framework intended to ensure action on the most significant pressures on the water environment, supported by economic incentives, funding, and education to promote, encourage and support action. Examples of measures being undertaken include:

• Increasing investigative work to improve understanding of the problems
• Working with local stakeholders to find solutions that maximise social and economic benefits
• Building partnerships with land managers, other businesses and voluntary organisations
• Improving communication of good practices, including among land managers

Working with farmers is part of a co-ordinated national level approach to reduce the risk of diffuse pollution. A partnership approach to reducing rural diffuse pollution is led by the Diffuse Pollution Management Action Group (DPMAG). In addition to its national strategy, DPMAG targets ‘Priority Catchments’ where a particular focussed approach is needed. A whole catchment approach is also being taken with regard to abstraction management. Declining river flows may require regulatory intervention in order to maintain environmental flow conditions. SEPA are currently trialling a new approach to abstraction management, working with land managers in catchments that have been identified at risk of impact from irrigation abstraction and focussing on crop requirements, water efficiency, irrigation programming and use of storage ponds. ‘Farming for a Better Climate’ (Scotland’s Rural College) and ‘Future Proofing Scotland’s Farming’ (Soil Association Scotland, Quality Meat Scotland) provides practical advice to farmers which helps to support this approach.

The threat of invasive non-native species to freshwater habitats is addressed by Scotland’s Biodiversity Strategy and in addition to targeted management of notified habitats by Scottish Natural Heritage, a combination of public awareness campaigns, innovative ‘citizen science’, and the development of strong partnerships is aimed at reducing this growing risk. The Rivers and Fisheries Trusts of Scotland (RAFTS) are leading on biosecurity in many Scottish river catchments. RAFTS has recently begun developing the Scottish Invasive Species Initiative (SISI) project. This will create a network of volunteers to eradicate and control several invasive non-native species across a large area in the north of Scotland, focusing on rivers, lochs and riparian corridors.

Currently, there are limited long-term, quality controlled water temperature data available in Scotland which makes it difficult to accurately assess some climate related pressures and impacts and to therefore enable more focussed and effective management. In response to this need, the Scotland River Temperature Monitoring Network (SRTMN) is being established to provide an evidence base that can inform local fisheries management and adaptation strategy at a local and national level.

SEPA has been progressively improving the understanding of the state of the water environment in Scotland, and since 2009 a number of changes have occurred to the way data is collected and analysed:

• increasing the amount of environmental data on which the assessments are based;
• developing and refining the models used to interpret data and make assessments;

The second RBMP also includes an assessment of how the main management actions may contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and to preparing Scotland for a future climate, as well as considering how effective the action will remain under a changing climate. This is an important development as it helps to identify potential conflicts and reduce the risk of maladaptation. Climate change is likely to increase the need for coordinated land and water management as conflict arises due to e.g. reduced summer water availability (conflicts for a limited resource) and high intensity rainfall events (the need to utilise farmland for flood prevention).

What do the indicators tell us?

CXC’s indicators focus on various aspects of exposure and vulnerability of the water environment to climatic changes, some of the critical resulting impacts and highlights action to address these risks:

The direct and indirect RISK to the natural water environment due to changes in temperature and precipitation, and vulnerability to pressures exerted on water quality and quantity from climate related changes in the terrestrial environment:

• Summer low flow events in Scottish rivers (Normalised Flow Index) identifies 30 and 90 day periods of regional relative water scarcity. During the summer of 2014 the Clyde region experienced the lowest flows relative to the long term average. Currently there is no detectable trend, but it is projected that by the 2050s, exceptional events currently experienced once every 40 years may become as common as every 9 years.   
• Proportion of water bodies not meeting Good Overall Status utilises SEPAs annual monitoring to provide an indication of the likely resilience of water bodies to the pressures of climate change. Whilst targets have been missed, there has been an overall decrease in the number of sites failing to meet good status, with improvements largely being secured by the reduction of impacts from discharges of pollution or water abstraction, and the removal of barriers to fish migration.           
• Drought risk to agricultural land examines constraints on land use options through limitations on soil water availability, and hence the potential increased demand on abstraction of water for irrigation to maintain agricultural productivity. Currently around 2.5% of prime land is at moderate/severe drought risk but no long-term trend is currently detected.
• Agricultural land at significant flood risk uses SEPA’s assessment of the area of prime agricultural land at risk of 10, 50 and 200 year flood events. Over 160,000ha are currently identified as at risk of frequent flooding with consequential risk of soil erosion and run-off into water bodies.
• Wetness risk for agriculture examines the constraints on land use options through limitations on trafficability and workability of the land and the risk of poaching resulting in increased pollution to surrounding water bodies. Whilst there has been no significant change across Scotland as a whole, East Scotland shows a slight trend to reduced wetness risk.

The IMPACT on the condition and distribution of native and non-native freshwater species and potential indirect impacts from the influence of land use on the water environment:

• Condition and distribution of climate sensitive species: Abundance of Arctic charr in freshwater lochs examines the impact of temperature changes on a cold water specialist which is physically restricted from shifting range in response. Whilst climate change is not the only pressure on their populations, there is evidence to show that it is having a significant impact on the southerly distribution of this species.
• Freshwater habitats with reported presence of key invasive non-native species (INNS) utilises SNH’s Site Condition Monitoring and shows that currently around a third of Scotland’s notified freshwater features have a reported pressure from INNS.
• Freshwater bodies affected by diffuse pollution due to agriculture utilises pressure data collected by SEPA for all water bodies. Over 16% of water bodies in 2012 were under pressure from diffuse pollution from arable, livestock or mixed farming and at less than good status overall.
• Abstraction of water for irrigation shows that during 2013 approximately 17 million cubic metres of water were abstracted for irrigation purposes, which was 39% of the total licensed volume. Abstraction levels were significantly higher in the East reflecting the dominance of arable farming in this area. The greatest abstraction occurred in the Tay region which coincides with the area projected to see the greatest increases in irrigation demand.

Examine the success of management ACTION to improve the resilience of the water environment and the ability to adequately assess climate induced impacts:

• Progress towards the environmental objectives of the River Basin Management Plans uses SEPAs water classification data to assess achievement of environmental improvement targets. There has been good progress with regard to addressing many measures, but some targets for improvement are likely to be missed in a number of areas (particularly with regard to rural diffuse pollution and the risk posed by the spread of INNS)
• Freshwater monitoring: temperature assesses the change in temperature monitoring capability at SEPA water monitoring stations. There has been a significant increase since 2002 however the availability of high resolution, quality controlled temperature data remains inadequate but is being addressed by the establishment of the Scotland River Temperature Monitoring Network (SRTMN).

Possible future indicators for which data is not currently available or suitable:

• Freshwater temperature means and extremes
• Condition and distribution of climate sensitive species: Salmon
• Organic carbon levels in rivers and lochs
• Wetland restoration area
• River restoration projects and riparian planting schemes
• River area/catchments with invasive species eradication programme
• Uptake of water conservation measures

Change to more drought resistant crop varieties

Other relevant indicators

Projected increases in prolonged and heavy rainfall events may lead to an increase in soil erosion and hence the pollution of aquatic environments through enhanced sediment load and associated chemicals:

• Soil erosion risk (2016)
• Agricultural production methods which reduce erosion risk (2018)

The availability and quality of water for Scotland’s natural environment is intricately linked to the adequate supply of drinking water and meeting the needs of Scotland’s industries and energy demands, as well as the sustainable management of these needs:

• Water leakage and loss (2018)
• Zones and customers vulnerable to water supply deficit (domestic/industry sector) (2016)
• Total household water usage per day (2018)
• Total non-household water usage per day (2018)

Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) theme: Natural environment

SCCAP objectives:
N1: Understand the effects of climate change and their impacts on natural environment
N2: Support a healthy and diverse natural environment with capacity to adapt
N3: Sustain and enhance the benefits, goods and services that the natural environment provides

Will species be able to track suitable space in a changing climate?

Some plants, animals and insects will be unable to thrive in their current locations as the climate changes. This can be directly due to the changing climatic conditions or because the changing climate is enabling other species to move into the location and compete for resources. In order to survive, some threatened species may be able to move to a new location where the climate is suitable. It is important to note that many species, including most of our waders and seabirds, are site faithful and will not move. They will simply not survive at their current locations when faced with competition from other species or declining availability of food or other resources.

For species that can and do move, this might mean moving northwards, up mountainsides to a higher elevation, or from south-facing to north-facing slopes. Climate change has already led to species movements, for example changing migration patterns of waterbirds. Species have been wintering at higher latitudes than previously (Abundance of wintering waterbirds).

Movements to new areas in response to a changing climate can depend on suitable habitat being available within those areas. Some species may be able to move or disperse to other areas of suitable habitat relatively easily, for example some butterfly species have been shifting their range northwards. Other species need to use ‘corridors’ or ‘stepping stones’ in order to move between fragmented areas of suitable habitat.

Currently, fragmented habitats and lack of connecting features limit the ability of some species to track suitable climate space. Species that can only survive in a very narrow range of environmental conditions (including habitat ‘specialist’ species such as lichens of ancient woodlands – Proportion of ancient woodlands with declining overall suitability for lichen epiphytes), those at the southern limit of their range in Scotland, and montane species are particularly likely to lose climate space; as the climate changes their habitat will shift northwards and/or to higher altitudes and become increasingly restricted (Abundance/frequency of specialist and generalist species: snow-bed species;  Abundance/frequency of specialist and generalist species: butterflies).

Adaptation options

The ability of some species to track changing climate space can be improved by provision of larger, better connected areas of suitable semi-natural habitat. This requires effective policy design and implementation across a number of sectors related to land use.

Policy areas directly concerned are biodiversity and conservation, agriculture and forestry. Relevant guidance is contained within the UK Biodiversity Action Plan, and relevant policies include the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy and Scottish Forestry Strategy. Seabird populations can be affected through fisheries policy. For example, the EU Common Fisheries Policy, specifically regulations on discards, has impacted seabird populations. In the past, some scavenging species, such as Northern fulmar and gannet, benefitted from discards from fishing vessels; this may have led to populations increasing beyond a level that can be sustained by natural food sources.With a reduction in discards, scavengers such as great skua have had to find other sources of food, including greater predation of other seabirds.  

Agri-environment and land use planning policy are also important, along with funding mechanisms such as those contained within the Scottish Rural Development Programme (SRDP). However, experience has shown that it can be difficult to make such mechanisms work effectively for targeted action. One success story is the role of SRDP funding in helping improve habitat for the marsh fritillary butterfly on farmland in Argyll, while contributing to the economic viability of farming in a marginal area.

The EU Water Framework Directive is a driver for improving water quality, important for reducing agricultural run-off that adversely affects pond condition (Extent and condition of natural landscape connections: hedgerows and ponds). Landscape Scale Conservation schemes (Area of land under landscape scale conservation) have the potential to help create larger, better-connected areas of semi-natural habitat and there is evidence of their success in achieving species conservation objectives.

This approach is a good fit with ecosystem services-driven policy and complements agri-environment and river basin management schemes. For some species, more targeted solutions will be required, such as the designation of new protected sites to facilitate shifts to more suitable habitats in a changing climate. While a great deal can be done to improve the availability of habitat to enable species to track changing climate space, in some cases the future climate in Scotland is unlikely to be suitable for some species; for example projections show that by the end of the century Scotland’s climate will no longer be suitable for some species of seabird. However, other species may benefit from these changes, as evidenced by the northward spread of the little egret.

What do the indicators tell us?

Tracking changing climate space is underpinned by 7 indicators:

The RISK of species being unable to track climate space and move to new areas of habitat:

• Extent and condition of natural landscape connections: hedgerows and ponds (2016) monitors the extent and condition of landscape features (hedgerows and ponds) that provide ‘corridors’ or ‘stepping stones’ between areas of habitat, (particularly in agricultural areas) enabling monitoring of whether we are successfully increasing the connectivity of areas of habitat. Range shifts in species due to climate change have been observed. Adequate habitat connectivity is vital in facilitating movement to allow species to track changing climate space, especially in the highly fragmented areas of semi-natural habitats that are common in Scottish landscapes. Therefore it is important to monitor connectivity to see whether the ability of species to move to new areas in response to changing climate space in future is being maintained and enhanced. The extent of hedgerows and ponds has been influenced in the past by agri-environmental policy and associated incentives; this indicator can help monitor the efficacy of such policy. The indicator demonstrates that in recent years the extent and condition of hedgerows has declined, while ponds have increased in number.
   
• Proportion of ancient woodlands with declining overall suitability for lichen epiphytes (2016) uses bioclimatic modelling to assess the future suitability of habitat for lichen epiphytes which are habitat specialists, existing only in Scotland’s fragmented but undisturbed ancient woodland. This restricted distribution makes them excellent indicators for investigating the impact of climate change on species that are unable to easily track changing climatic space. The model indicates a regional difference, with a higher risk of declining climate suitability for lichens of ancient woodlands in eastern Scotland (continental climate) than in the west (temperate rainforest).

 Monitor and measure the IMPACT of climate change on selected indicator species:

• Abundance of breeding seabirds (2018); Abundance of wintering water birds (2018). Seabirds are a good indicator of the health of marine environments.  Food availability and climate change are considered to be the primary drivers of abundance and productivity of seabird populations in Scotland. Evidence shows that climate change is affecting migration patterns of birds, and the food chains they rely on. Many of our wintering water birds breed in the Arctic and are affected by changes in the quality of habitat there. It is expected that wintering water birds will continue to be affected by environmental change, with new species overwintering in Scotland and existing species shifting locations, both within Scotland and across Europe. This has consequences for the network of designated protected sites, with a need to ensure that sufficient refugia or designated sites are provided in new locations as required. Among overwintering waterbirds, trends in abundance are currently divergent for different species groups. Waders, as a group, have shown sustained declines since 2006. Ducks have remained stable and geese have shown large increases.
• Abundance/frequency of specialist and generalist species: snow-bed species (2016); Abundance/frequency of specialist and generalist species: butterflies (2018).  It is expected that ‘generalist’ species that have the ability to thrive across different habitat types and environmental conditions will be better able to cope with a changing climate than ‘specialist’ niche species that are adapted to specific conditions. These indicators track specialist snow-bed bryophytes, and generalist compared to specialist butterfly species, respectively. In the case of snow-bed bryophytes, consistent trends at a national level have not been identified but a regionally differentiated pattern has emerged, with snow-bed bryophytes declining in the west but increasing in the east (Cairngorms), suggesting that structural change is occurring in snow-bed vegetation. For butterflies, generalist species have increased in abundance (1979-2013) while specialist species as a group have remained relatively stable. Climate change has enabled some generalist species to increase their range, while northerly distributed specialist species are expected to be negatively impacted; one such species, the large heath, has declined significantly in numbers in Scotland. 

Monitor what ACTION is being taken to adapt – to better manage the risks and increase resilience to the impacts identified above:

• Area of land under landscape scale conservation (2016). Landscape scale conservation (LSC) is increasingly recognised as an important tool in managing land to conserve and enhance biodiversity and ecosystem services. LSC can enable the creation of larger and linked areas of semi-natural habitat that can help species track changing climate space. This is recognised in policy, including the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy and Scottish Forestry Strategy. This indicator provides an initial estimate of the scale of such areas. It can help provide an understanding of how effectively large areas of habitat are being conserved and restored. Larger, well- connected areas of habitat are more resilient to climate change and other stressors, and enable species to track changing climate space more easily. An increase in the area under LSC will indicate effective implementation across a number of policy areas, including agriculture and biodiversity (LSC can contribute to the Aichi Targets and Habitats Directive that are included in the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy). This is therefore a good indicator of the efficacy of these policies. There is currently a lack of information about the precise area under landscape scale conservation, in part due to the lack of a common definition of LSC to identify and measure projects consistently. A Landscape Scale Conservation Working Group has been formed to improve collaboration and share good practice; this group is part of the governance structure of the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy.

Indicators not yet developed:

Connectivity of key natural/semi-natural habitats

Connectivity of designated sites

Distribution of climate sensitive species

Amount of native woodland creation in existing native woodland habitat networks per year

Other relevant indicators

The Tracking Changing Climate Space narrative is closely linked to Resilience of the natural environment (terrestrial), which includes indicators that monitor the extent and condition of key habitats along with the action indicator Natural Capital Asset Index (2018).

Agricultural policy and practice is an important driver of land use. In Scotland, climate change is expected to present an opportunity to increase agricultural productivity, while globally there will be increasing demand for food and climate driven concerns over food security. Together, these drivers are expected to lead to agricultural intensification. To realise this opportunity while retaining the areas of habitat and connecting corridors needed to enable species to track changing climate space, careful management is required. This is monitored in indicators such as Proportion of farmland under High Nature Value farming systems and Sustainable Intensification.

Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) theme: Natural environment

SCCAP objectives:
N1: Understand the effects of climate change and their impacts on natural environment
N2: Support a healthy and diverse natural environment with capacity to adapt
N3: Sustain and enhance the benefits, goods and services that the natural environment provides

Agricultural Intensification: Can production be increased sustainably?

Over 70% of Scotland’s land area is used for agriculture and so agricultural policy and practice is an important driver of land use. In Scotland, climate change is expected to present the opportunity of increasing agricultural productivity, while globally there are climate driven concerns over food security coupled with an increasing demand for food for a growing population. Together, these drivers are expected to lead to agricultural intensification. To realise an agricultural opportunity, while retaining the biodiversity and wider ecosystem service value of land, careful management is required. Historically, agricultural intensification has been the primary driver in depleting the range of ecosystem services delivered by agriculture.

The Land Capability for Agriculture (LCA) classification system identifies the flexibility of land for different uses, with the ‘top classes’ that make up our best arable farmland being defined as Prime agricultural land. Much of Scotland’s agricultural land is currently not suitable for intensive farming – defined as Less Favourable Area (LFA) and is poor quality grassland dedicated to cattle and sheep farming.

Climate change is likely to directly affect the LCA classification in some parts of Scotland, primarily due to warmer summers. Increasing temperatures have already improved land capability and increased the area of prime agricultural land in Scotland (NA2 Area of Prime Agricultural Land). This favourable situation is complicated however by changes in other aspects of land capability, notably drought risk and wetness risk. Changes in land capability already occurring, and further projected changes, afford both opportunities and risks. There are opportunities to utilise an increased area of prime agricultural land to improve food security. This is particularly important in light of the projected increase in global demand for food with a growing population, together with the adverse impact of climate change on agriculture in many regions of the world. Agricultural opportunities could benefit Scotland’s rural economy and its economically important food and drink sector. The risks centre around the negative impacts of agricultural intensification on the ability of the land to provide ecosystem services that are vital to our society and economy, such as natural flood control, water quality and carbon storage. In the past, agricultural intensification has been accompanied by loss of biodiversity and other negative environmental impacts (NA8 Sustainable intensification index; NA5 Trends in breeding farmland birds).

Change in land capability due to climate change is just one driver affecting land use within a complex system that involves combined environmental, economic, political and social factors – market forces, government policies for agriculture, biodiversity, forestry and renewable energy (NA1 Comparison of land capability against actual land use; NA9 Proportion of farmland under High Nature Value farming systems). There are therefore multiple factors that come into play in determining whether flexibility of land use enabled by an increase in land capability actually results in an increased intensity of agriculture for the improved areas.

With increasing intensity of agricultural activity, the challenge is to achieve sustainable intensification. This would enable increased production, helping secure food supply in a changing climate, while maintaining/improving ecological, economic and social sustainability. The Sustainable Intensification Index (NA8 Sustainable intensification index) introduces a metric that can help evaluate trends in both agricultural intensification, and the sustainability of that intensification, measured in environmental, economic and ethical terms.

Adaptation options: How can we sustainably increase agricultural production?

A broad suite of agriculture and Land Use policies will play a key role in achieving the sustainable intensification of agriculture. As evidenced in the past, European and Scottish Government policy drivers and incentives such as the EU CAP and the Scottish Rural Development Programme (SRDP) can have a significant influence on outcomes. These in turn have wider interlinked policy implications, such as in meeting the objectives of the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy.

The ability of policy to influence agricultural practice is evident, with cascading effects for other policy areas such as biodiversity. For example EU funding in the 1970s and 1980s partly drove the intensification of agricultural production that led to declines in many farmland bird populations. In some cases targeted agri-environment and reserve management measures helped reverse these population declines, such as for corncrakes. EU legislation obliges the monitoring, support and maintenance of High Nature Value (HNV) farming systems, traditional extensive systems that provide a landscape that has biodiversity value. There is a potential conflict therefore between agricultural intensification and the need to maintain HNV farming systems.

There is considerable national and international support in policy circles for sustainable intensification as a means to increasing agricultural output (i.e. increasing production per hectare) while maintaining or enhancing the ecosystem services upon which agricultural production depends and meeting societal needs in an equitable way.

Policy measures apart, benefiting from an increase in the area of Prime agricultural land depends not only on climate but a number of interlinked factors – environmental, economic and social. Some areas will continue to be limited by soils and/or topography. Adaptation actions in terms of land management, such as appropriate irrigation and drainage, will also play a key role in maximising opportunities.

What do the indicators tell us?

The suite of indicators on agricultural intensification cover:

RISKS and OPPORTUNITIES associated with agricultural intensification

NA2: Area of Prime Agricultural Land (Land Capability) Land capability identifies the flexibility of the land for different uses; the best quality land for agriculture is defined as Prime land. This indicator monitors the amount of prime agricultural land in Scotland over time. It is a useful indicator provides it is used appropriately. It needs to be considered in combination with other aspects of land capability, notably drought risk and wetness risk (see indicators NA28 Wetness risk for agriculture (arable suitability and grassland suitability); NA29 Drought risk to agricultural land). There are approximately 11,000km2 of Prime agricultural land is Scotland. The long-term trend is for this area to increase, but with important short-term variations and geographic differences.

NA1: Comparison of land capability against actual land use  This indicator seeks to characterise the relationship between the capability of the land and its actual use, although as yet no single value indicator has been devised to summarise this relationship. The most recent published figures defining the relationship are for 2011 though data to support analysis for 2000-2014 are available. Given the growing body of evidence that the LCA classification is changing in response to weather and climate, understanding how this potential relates to actual changes in land cover is vital. A key limitation in using this indicator is the difficulty in adequately attributing change in land use to a host of complex and inter-related drivers: climate induced changes in capability together with environmental, economic, social and political drivers. 

Monitor and measure the IMPACT of potential changes in agricultural intensification on biodiversity

NA5: Trends in breeding farmland birds Historically, the intensification of agriculture has led to declines in many farmland bird populations. Birds are easily recognisable, well-monitored and provide a good indicator of the impact of land use change associated with agricultural intensification. If as expected future climate change leads to agricultural intensification, this indicator can help monitor whether such intensification is environmentally sustainable, i.e. continuing to provide suitable habitat and food for farmland birds. While agricultural intensification and land use change are important, attributing change among other potential drivers such as the direct impacts of climate change, or predation and disease, may be problematic. A smoothed trend 1994-2013 shows a steady increase up to the late 2000s, followed by a decline, so that overall abundance is not significantly different in 2013 than in 1994.

Monitor what ACTION is being taken to adapt – to monitor and manage changes and mitigate against negative impacts

NA9: Proportion of farmland (Utilised Agricultural Area) under High Nature Value (HNV) farming systems This indicator was developed by the Scottish Government to support the monitoring of the Scottish Rural Development Programme (SRDP) and the Scottish Government strategies such as the Land Use Strategy. It monitors the proportion of farmland that is under High Nature Value farming systems – traditional low intensity systems that include a mix of moorland, grassland and woodland. Such systems have declined historically due to poor economic viability. In its current form, the indicator is based simply on the classification of farm type. Lack of spatial data limits the level at which HNV farming can be calculated and mapped. There is the possibility in future to refine the indicator, for example by including uptake of specific SRDP measures related to HNV farming. In 2013, 2.4m hectares, 44% of farmland in Scotland was under HNV farming. A trend cannot be determined due to recent changes in farm classification; 2013 will be used as the base year for future analysis.

NA8: Sustainable intensification index (Scottish LFA beef sector) Scotland’s LFA beef sector is dominant within the agricultural industry and has potential for growth. Furthermore, the landscape and ecosystem services associated with this sector could be fundamentally altered if climate change leads to a higher LCA combined with increased demand. This indicator utilises the Index for sustainable intensification for the LFA beef sector, that includes indicators for three components of sustainable intensification; economic, environmental and social sustainability, and has been calculated for 2001-2010. It is designed to identify a trend over time that will indicate the impact of policy. There was no significant change in sustainable intensification in the beef sector (2001-2010), attributed to lack of policy drivers for either increasing production or improving sustainability.

Other relevant indicators

Soil management is a key element in the effect of agriculture and land use on climate change. It has the potential to mitigate climate change by maximising carbon storage, but also to release more carbon to the atmosphere. For example, the expansion of arable cropping and increasing the area under annual tillage could increase carbon loss to the atmosphere. The narrative Condition of agricultural soils is therefore closely linked to this narrative, along with Water quality and availability and Suitability and productivity (agriculture).

Agricultural landscapes are important in terms of the ecosystem services they provide and the biodiversity they support. The biodiversity narratives Tracking suitable space in a changing climate and Resilience of the natural environment (terrestrial) provide further information.

Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) theme: Natural environment

SCCAP objectives:
N1: Understand the effects of climate change and their impacts on natural environment
N2: Support a healthy and diverse natural environment with capacity to adapt
N3: Sustain and enhance the benefits, goods and services that the natural environment provides

How is changing climate suitability affecting the productivity and sustainability of Scotland’s forestry?

Climate change is expected to bring both risks and opportunities to Scotland’s productive forestry.

The projected warmer climate will increase tree growth generally across the country (though there will be significant regional variability) with a resulting increase in productivity in areas not limited by water and available nutrients. This increase will also potentially aid the target of Forestry Commission Scotland (FCS) to increase the country’s woodland by an additional 100,000ha between 2012 and 2022. This would significantly contribute to Scotland’s emission reduction targets by locking up carbon in the growing trees. New woodland areas also bring wider environmental benefits and if spatially targeted within habitat networks will reduce habitat fragmentation.

Whilst a wider selection of species will be able to grow, particularly favouring high quality broadleaved trees in the South, the climatic changes will also alter the suitability of sites for species of trees already growing commercially in Scotland which could impact both positively and negatively on the productivity and sustainability of the forestry sector.

Changes in the seasonable distribution of rainfall are projected to increase the risk of drought in summer with a resulting decrease in suitability for species more sensitive to water limitations (e.g. Sitka spruce). Increased winter rainfall and a greater frequency of intense rainfall events will decrease the stability of slopes in some areas.

Milder winters and warmer wetter springs are likely to favour the abundance and distribution of over-wintering pests and diseases, and damage or stress resulting from drought, temperature extremes or storm damage will increase susceptibility to these pathogens.

An increase in periods of drought will heighten the threat to Scotland’s forests from wildfires. Though typically in Scotland the main damage from such events is to the understorey, even if tree mortality does not occur, fire damaged surviving trees are more susceptible to subsequent attack by pathogens or other stressors.

Wind throw can cause significant damage through uprooting and snapping of stems. Though there is still a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the projected impact of climate change on high winds and storm events in Scotland, it is known that forest stands in wetter soils are at greater risk from high winds. Furthermore, the projected increase in growth rate may mean forest stands reaching a height which puts them at risk at a younger age.