In its climate policy and international engagement, the Scottish Government is already a strong voice calling for a gender-responsive approach and women’s participation. Integrating the Scottish Government’s visions for climate justice and a feminist approach to foreign policy is an opportunity to demonstrate powerful leadership in shaping a new feminist approach to international climate justice.

Climate change, conflict and gender are mutually reinforcing dynamics that interact to destroy lives and livelihoods, especially for the most disadvantaged. From an analysis of Scottish Government work to date, and best practices in international policy and programming, this project suggests strategic policy opportunities through which the Scottish Government could boost its global roles in climate justice and gender equality, and contribute to peace and security.

The report describes the levels of action required to achieve a feminist approach to international climate justice. This framework can be used to analyse policy in Scotland and beyond:

Building from a strong base, the report identifies a range of priorities and entry points for the Scottish Government to ensure its development strategy more systematically and meaningfully engages with the relationships between climate change, conflict and gender inequality: 

1. Centre economic justice in climate justice
2. Use the Climate Justice Fund and International Development Strategy to support just, inclusive and sustainable feminist economies
3. Empower women peacebuilders and environmental defenders to advocate for economic transformation
4. Advance gender equality through all Climate Justice Fund and International Development programming 
5. Leverage partnerships at home and abroad and continue to learn

These opportunities are discussed with reference to how they respond to the action needed at each level of the framework.

Adaptation pathways is a decision-making tool employed to adapt to climate change and the inherent uncertainties of future risk.  This research sets out to explore the evidence base to help design and apply adaptation (investment) pathways to the tidal reach of the Clyde drawing on international practice and UK guidance.

This research is a first for Scotland providing:

• information to help frame actions and decisions at a local, regional and national level around future flood resilience and long-term adaptation on the Clyde;
• practical insights into the application of adaptation pathways practice to the Clyde; and
• a starting point for the co-design and development of a route map and future actions.

Over the last 200 years the Clyde has experienced significant adaptation and transformation. Building on this history of adaptation, stakeholders have expressed a desire to re-imagine the current relationship between the river, people and place; to create a vibrant connected river corridor and waterfront, and make the river “an asset to be proud of”.

The approach to adaptation for the Clyde will need to be transformation-orientated, with place making and resilience at the heart of investment decision making and future pathway design.

Recommendations

Recommended first steps for adaptation on the Clyde include to:

1. agree a framework for the application of adaptation pathways for the Clyde that fosters systems-thinking and a process for place-based decision making;
2. agree what “a resilient Clyde” means, to inform design principles for investment and pathway development, and shape indicators for monitoring and evaluation;
3. establish a ‘resilience zone’, a geographic boundary for decision-making;
4. build an action plan (Mission Map) for the first five years of investment; and
5. scope and develop a knowledge portal to support innovation, collaboration and long-term monitoring and evaluation.

“This independent report is yet another reminder of the climate change issues that we face, in this case along the Clyde. My challenge is this – that the partners in Clyde Mission, including this Government, the City Region and Local Authorities work together and with other key partners to fully consider this report and develop an approach which is innovative, assists and promotes investment and builds the resilience of our communities and businesses.”

Màiri McAllan, Minister for Environment and Land Reform

“The successful cities of the future will be those which put climate change adaptation at the heart of decision making. This comprehensive report, focussing on the tidal Clyde, is an important first step in making climate change adaptation a business-as-usual consideration for communities, local government, agencies, and the private sector. I look forward to working with colleagues in Clyde Mission to translate the report’s recommendations into action.”

David Harley, Head of Water and Planning (SEPA), Climate Change Adaptation Lead (Clyde Mission)

Scottish Government guidance strongly encourages managed adaptive flood risk management. However, none of the schemes in the 2016-2021 delivery cycle incorporate adaptive plans or reference multiple climate change scenarios.

This project looks at case studies developing adaptive flood risk management plans to inform guidance. It particularly looks at how to address the five critical barriers identified in our 2019 report Taking a managed adaptive approach to flood risk management planning in Scotland.

The aim is for future guidance to help local authorities embed adaptive approaches and, in doing so, support the resilience of people and places to a changing and uncertain climate, and create greater long-term value and societal benefits.

The recommendations are based on three case studies; Outer Hebrides coastal adaptation, Moray fluvial adaptation, and The Clyde tidal adaptation.

Key findings and recommendations

• Managed adaptive approaches to flood risk management in Scotland are far from mainstream, and emerging practice is not yet keeping pace with policy ambitions
• The three case studies explored in this research illustrate that the concept of a managed adaptive approach, although not widely in use, is flexible enough to support a range of local circumstances and applications, including: asset-orientated, stakeholder-orientated and transformation-orientated adaptation ambitions and investments.
• The case studies also demonstrate the value of “learning by doing” which in itself is a core aspect of taking a managed adaptive approach to flood risk management planning, and important to scaling up future activity and promoting successes.
• To this effect this research highlights the importance of the ‘getting started and framing’ phase and involvement of stakeholders. To set adaptation investments up for success, it is therefore recommended (regardless of the approach adopted) that step 1 of the process is positioned as a readiness assessment and includes five core activities:

1. Define ambitions, success and value – ambitions should be co-designed with stakeholders and include a local definition of resilience (now and in the future).
2. Plan the adaptation process – co-design of the process and approach with stakeholders.
3. Funding and finance – initial assessment of the potential funding and financing opportunities reflecting the adaptation ambitions and wider local, regional and national strategies, policies and plans.
4. Monitoring and evaluation – drawing on the statement of ambitions and definition of resilience an initial assessment of indicator needs and data availability should be completed.
5. Capacity building and learning – an initial assessment of the capacity and capabilities of the project partners should be undertaken to determine resource, expertise and skills needs. This assessment should consider the importance of fulfilling four key design roles: systems thinker, leader and story-teller, designer and maker, and connector and convenor.

Scotland’s seas cover nearly six times its land area and approximately 63% of the total UK Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) (Scottish Government, 2022). They also support several sectors crucial to Scotland’s economy, from oil and gas and aquaculture to fishing and marine tourism, collectively forming what is known as the “marine economy”.

The impacts of climate change on Scotland’s seas are expected to become more frequent and severe over the coming decades: Warming seas, reduced oxygen, ocean acidification and sea level rise are already affecting ecosystems in the North Sea, adding pressure to historically overexploited fish populations, and exacerbating invasive species and disease spread in aquaculture.

This research reviews climate vulnerability assessments (CVAs) of natural and socio-economic marine systems in Scotland and internationally to:

1. identify focus, spatial scale and gaps in CVAs relevant to Scotland;
2. identify examples of CVAs methodologies used internationally, including the strengths and weaknesses of these methodologies; and
3. suggest how to strengthen vulnerability assessments of the marine environment and marine economy in Scotland.

Key findings and recommendations

Our review found that Scotland already has many of the foundations in place to conduct a full CVA for its marine environment.  It is also evident that the strengths and weaknesses of Scottish marine CVA literature are similar to those which exist internationally.

Addressing the identified gaps requires an understanding of the effects of climate change across the range of sectors that are relevant to the marine economy.

To strengthen CVAs for the marine environment in Scotland the report proposes to:

• engage with experts and stakeholders in Scotland, starting with those in MCCIP and those engaged in the UKCCRA process to facilitate a cross-sectoral discussion of climate vulnerability in Scotland’s marine environment;
• identify priority sectors where additional research is needed and those deemed important for Scotland’s marine environment in order to gain a complete picture of climate vulnerability in the marine environment in Scotland;
• identify robust studies included in this review which would potentially benefit from being updated and develop a plan for funding priority research activities; and
• draw from robust sources such as those identified through this study to expand on the existing CVA work in Scotland.

Having a better understanding of the public’s awareness of the risks of climate change will help provide a platform for more effective engagement at the community and society level. This study aimed to explore the Scottish public’s understanding of current and future risks and opportunities posed by a changing climate, and highlight any gaps that should be the focus of future public and community engagement on adaptation.

The report is based on a rapid evidence assessment (REA) of previous quantitative and qualitative studies of public perceptions of climate risks and adaptation in the UK, and a nationally representative survey of the Scottish public.

Key findings

• Echoing recent trends, concern about climate change in Scotland was high and increasing, and a majority felt that Scotland was already feeling the effects of climate change. 
• Weather-related events were generally seen as more of a serious problem for Scotland overall than for respondents’ local areas. 
• Risks to both the natural and built environment were also more likely to be seen as a problem for the whole of Scotland than for respondents’ local areas.
• Respondents generally recognised the need for action to address the impacts of climate change but were fairly moderate about the perceived efficacy of individual or household actions. 
• Most respondents had already taken, or planned to take, at least one action to help address the impacts of climate change. 
• Concern about climate change and perceived seriousness of risks varied between groups and by location. It tended to be higher among women, younger people (aged 16-34), those educated to a degree level and homeowners.

These findings can inform future public engagement in a number of way, including on how to communicate climate risks and extreme weather and build on the public’s awareness, and the most effective starting points for action.

Emissions trading systems (ETSs) have been at the core of climate policy in the EU and the UK for more than 15 years. Operating under a ‘cap-and-trade’ principle, they are designed to enable decarbonisation to take place in industries where it is most cost-effective. However, there is a risk that these systems push carbon-intensive industrial processes to other territories with less stringent carbon pricing, regulations or emissions standards. This can result in a subsequent overall increase in greenhouse gas emissions or ‘carbon leakage’.

To lower the carbon leakage risk, the Fit for 55 Package, published by the European Commission in July 2021, included a proposal for the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

This research project has developed an approach to assess the impacts of ETS and CBAM on Scottish business.

Key findings

• Scottish ETS installations face considerable uncertainty in relation to their future exposure to carbon liabilities due to the changeable policy landscape.
• The main product groups within ETS sectors include primary energy and electricity, petrochemicals, metallic and non-metallic products as well as outputs of the pharmaceuticals, food and drink, wood-based and paper product industries.
• As well as the Scottish domestic market, the main ETS sectors primarily compete with producers in the rest of the UK. The key ETS exporting sectors mainly compete with producers in the EU and the wider European Economic Area, followed by the US.
• Our mapping suggests that sectors such as paper, metal forging, glass fibres, and non-metallic minerals may be particularly vulnerable to international competitiveness impacts. However, many of these sectors trade primarily with the EU, where carbon pricing is comparable. Many other sectors display “medium” risks; including glass, oil refining and chemicals.
• If the EU draft CBAM was implemented, the aluminium and iron and steel ETS sectors in Scotland would be affected. In addition, non-ETS sectors such as fertiliser production, may also see an impact, but further data collection is needed to fully quantify the impact.
• Our calculations suggest that the ETS installations considered in our study incurred an ETS cost of around £230 million in 2019.

The COVID-19 pandemic brought about extraordinarily rapid changes in individuals’ behaviours. Lockdown restrictions designed to contain the spread of the virus had a knock-on impact on our daily movements and behaviours relevant to Scotland’s net zero target.

This study aimed to explore the experience of behaviours with a positive or negative impact on net zero. It followed a cohort of people in Scotland through different phases of COVID-19 restrictions from July 2020 to June 2021.

The research provides an in-depth understanding of the contextual factors influencing behaviour change, including how those changes are experienced and whether the changes ‘stick’.

Key findings

• The disruption brought about by COVID-19 restrictions led to changes across the full range of net zero behaviours investigated. A central driver of these changes was the requirement to spend more time at home. This triggered changes to routines and schedules which impacted on many aspects of travel, leisure, shopping and cooking.
• The behaviour changes that flowed from the disruption to daily schedules were wide reaching and did not take place in isolation, with many net zero behaviours being interlinked. For example, changes to travel behaviours as a result of a switch to working from home was found to have knock-on effects for shopping habits which, in turn, affected cooking habits.
• Using the ISM tool to analyse participants behaviours revealed that changes to behaviours were influenced by a range of individual, social and material factors including: participants’ values, attitudes and beliefs; their time and schedules; the availability (or lack of) supporting infrastructure and objects required to adopt particular behaviours; and the networks and relationships surrounding them.
• There was an appetite for a number of the changes to participants’ daily lives to be sustained, particularly reduced reliance on cars, shopping locally, reducing waste and cooking from scratch. However, participants also highlighted barriers to maintaining these behaviours, including a lack of infrastructure or services, a knowledge or skills gap, and cost.
• Participants were generally in support of actions being taken by government to encourage positive net zero behaviours. In particular, participants were positive about government providing advice, information, financial incentives and infrastructure. Participants were generally unsupportive of charges, regulation or enforcement of behaviour by government.

The findings underscore the importance of creating an ‘enabling environment’ for net zero lifestyles in the recovery from COVID-19 that will help individuals to sustain the positive net zero behaviours that they have adopted during the pandemic.

The Scottish Government has committed to ending the practice of landfilling biodegradable municipal waste (BMW) by 2025, in line with recommendations from the Climate Change Committee (CCC). The waste sector accounts for approximately 4% of Scotland’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with the degradation of biodegradable waste to landfill accounting for a large proportion of the waste treatment sector’s GHG emissions.

The CCC also recommended the ban be extended to include all biodegradable waste generated from non-municipal sources. The Scottish Government has agreed to this, subject to consultation.

The Scottish Government is working with local authorities to secure alternative treatment options for wastes encompassed by the ban. There is a need for effective delivery planning to ensure that residual waste treatment capacity matches the waste supply. This assessment considers the national residual waste capacity requirements to inform such delivery planning.

Key findings

The research models three scenarios.

• A baseline/ ‘business as usual’ scenario (Scenario 1) results in a large gap in current and planned treatment capacity to deliver the BMW landfill ban (0.61 Mt) in 2025. This is exacerbated under the extended biodegradable non-municipal wastes (BNMW) landfill ban (0.66 Mt) as more material is required to be diverted from landfill to alternative treatment facilities.
• Under an approaching targets scenario (Scenario 2), there is still an estimated capacity gap in 2025 under the BMW landfill ban (0.13 Mt), which increases (to 0.18 Mt) under the extended BNMW waste landfill ban.
• In the scenario where all policy targets are achieved (Scenario 3), there is an estimated overcapacity due to the high impact of waste reduction measures on total waste requiring management. This results in a surplus treatment capacity (-0.48 Mt) in 2025 for the materials within the scope of the BMW landfill ban. This surplus treatment capacity reduces slightly (-0.43 Mt) under the extended BNMW landfill ban.

Carbon modelling

Carbon modelling of the scenarios shows that the most significant reduction in carbon emissions results from increased contributions to waste reduction and recycling. As extra efforts are made to divert materials from becoming waste in the first place, and with increased recycling, Scenario 3 results in the greatest carbon savings.